Planning your career with history. History Assignment

Hi Class,
We are very close to the end of the semester. I shall ask everyone to think one big question: does history have any practical use for you?
On this issue, my opinion must be biased because, as a professional, I have been making living on history. Hope you examine my argument critically.
In my opinion, every student should learn how to plan his or her career with a perspective of history. What does it mean?
Last summer, when I picked up my daughter at NYU, I bluntly told her to prepare for a recession at her graduation. The advice took her by a surprise. She had been carefully preparing her career, majoring math and economics and doing well at school. She also started to expand her area into coding and data science. There were so many opportunities there. Who cared about a recession?
I told her then that, as a historian, I always put those things into a perspective. Everyone should prepare for her or his career. But everyone’s career will be embedded in a history. Look at economic cycles: by the last summer, we had enjoyed about 10 years of high growth, one of the longest in history. By the summer 2021 when she graduates, the high growth, if we still have it, will be 12 years old. Something exceptional does happen. But we have to be reasonable: most people die before their 100 birthday and nobody live to 150. There will be at least more than 50% chance for a recession in the next two years. Historical data also show that, if you enter job market in a recession and start with a low salary, your lifetime earnings will be lower. It will be really hard to catch up later.
This is the simplest thing a historian can do and you don’t have to be a professional historian to do that.
What should we do now?
Another historical perspective, from which we can look at the future.
Everybody is in an unique situation and I cannot generalize. But the historical thinking is still important. What I can do is to share with you my suggestions to my daughter.
This recession, in my judgement, is going to be deep and long. By the summer 2020, the economy wouldn’t bounce back. This will be a bad timing for graduation. Moreover, going back to NYU this fall is dangerous because I don’t expect the pandemic will be over by September. So I suggest her to take a gap year, staying at home.
I could be wrong. What if we are luck enough to have a “V recovery”, which means the economy bounces back quickly and strongly? The chance is very small. But even if it does occur, just look at history: a strong recovery always generates many good jobs for many years to come. It is Okay to jump on the job market a year or two later.
But there is another more likely scenario: it will take four or five years for the economy to fully recover. What should we do in this four or five years? My suggestion: load up your skills as much as you can, with a perspective about how the world will be transformed in the next five years.
In my daughter’s situation, I suggest a gap year by learning online in the field of data sciences and coding. In this way, she postpones her graduation date to 2022. By that time, if the economy is still struggling, go to a graduate school (she is lucky enough to have family support and I don’t mean this is practical for everyone). In this way, she expects to get a solid professional degree in 2024, about four or five years from now.
By that time, I believe that our economy will be totally transformed. The pandemic only accelerates the ongoing changes in our society. Automation, coding, data science, computer science and anything related to online technologies will be in high demand. We need to take a look at the current situation: about 36% jobs can be done at home and those are usually high paid jobs. Even after the pandemic, this is going to be a long-term situation. The question is if you have the skills to handle a very complex job from home. If you don’t, just get those skills when you are young and have time.
I myself have always planned my career with historical perspective and benefited from it a lot. I hope you would give history a chance in your own career planning.
I attach two articles. They are NOT our required reading. One article talks about how long this recession would last. The other one talks about what happens after the recession, namely what kind of life you are going to have. The author argues that the older generations such as our baby boomers tends to spend beyond their means, creating a mountain of debt. You may have to become a generation of frugality, just like the generation growing up in the age of the Great Depression. A very bold prediction but it deserves a serious look.