Potential Impact of China-Taiwan Conflict on United States Indo-Pacific Command

Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government.

Table of Contents

Disclaimer: 2

Preface. 5

Abstract 5

1. Introduction. 6

2. Background and Significance. 8

2.1. The China-Taiwan Conflict 8

2.1.1. Root Causes of the Conflict 8

2.1.2. Current Status. 10

2.1.3. Possible key issues that might escalate the conflict 11

2.2. Significance to USINDOPACOM... 13

3. Literature Review.. 15

3.1. Background. 15

3.2. Causes of the Vietnam War. 16

3.3. Ways in Which US Military Got Involved in the War. 18

4. Analysis and Discussion of Findings. 21

4.1. Comparing Vietnam War and China-Taiwan Conflict 21

4.1.1. Communism versus Great Power Competition. 21

4.1.2. Cost versus Value of Interest 22

4.1.3. Weak South Vietnamese Government versus Relatively Strong Taiwanese Government 24

4.1.4. Military Arms/Training. 25

4.1.5. Public Support 26

4.2 Impact on the USINDOPACOM... 27

5. Recommendations. 29

5.1. Responsible Congressional Oversight 29

5.2. Integrated Deterrence. 29

5.3. Maintain Military Superiority. 30

5.4. Utilize the Power of Allies. 30

6. Conclusion. 31

7.0 Endnotes. 31

Preface
One thing that I am fascinated with in geopolitics is the relationship the US has with other nations and its impact on the country's military. As a global power, the US has a military presence in most regions of the world. I find it interesting how the relationship between the US and other nations impacts US military operations, particularly those stationed outside the US. When the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, alongside a delegation, visited Taiwan in August 2022, I knew it was a significant moment in the history of the relationship between the two countries as well as in the US-China conflict.
With the knowledge of the One China policy and the trade wars between China and the US, I inferred that Pelosi's visit would be a turning point in the US approach to the island. With basic research on the issue, it became clear that the US was shifting from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. The ensuing tensions between Taiwan and China made me wonder, what would be the impact on the US military if the conflict escalates? The case of Vietnam War, where the US sought to protect South Vietnam, came to mind, and I thought it would offer a great comparison with valuable lessons for the US military. In essence, I wanted to find out what happened in Vietnam and how it compares to the China-Taiwan conflict and, in the process, draw valuable insights for the US military.
Abstract
The current US administration's policy towards Taiwan is characterized by strategic clarity as opposed to strategic ambiguity employed before. From for...