Realism and International Security: Will the US and China Go to War?
The full essay title is: “Despite mounting tensions between them, neither the US nor China has reason or capability to start a war.” Do you agree? Justify your answer.
3,500 words, MLA, referencing offensive and defensive realism as the main schools of thought.
Overall, my argument is that while both states have the capacity to start a war, neither of them have reason to - yet. Because of their respective capacity, both states recognise the global fallout if they engage in conflict. I have selected 5 reasons to focus on that could lead to conflict:
1. the 'end' of US unipolarity; here, I want to talk about how America as a unipolar leader is coming to an end, and how people are now looking towards China as a regional and global leader. the US needs to accept China’s advancements and not view China as a threat to the Western region (it can only be a regional hegemon) in order to avoid conflict.
2. Thucydides Trap and its geographical deterrents; here, I want to talk about the security dilemma created by the Thucydides trap, explain where the name comes from (greek war), and talk about how while offensive realists would argue that every state wants to maximise its power, China has shown to be more inclined to following defensive realism logic. Geographical distance between china and the US helps, which was a disadvantage for the Greek war but works in favour here as a deterrent.
3. nuclear deterrents; simply, war between China and the US using nuclear arsenal is illogical, as it puts the whole world at risk. And, more importantly, both states recognise this. While they are both armed with nuclear weapons, they act much more as a deterrent than as a trigger for war.
4. Sino-American economic interdependence beside China’s economic growth; overlapping with America’s dwindling unipolarity, here I want to discuss how the Chinese economy has been booming and is predicted to grow more than the American economy, due to factors like the 2008 crash and recovery from Covid. China’s economy growth is a cause of tension between them and the US because it could lead to both powers engaging in an intense battle for superiority. America would be willing to put their domestic interests at risk for the sake of winning, which could lead to a declaration of something similar to the Cold War or even direct conflict. China, following defensive realism, would be less likely to declare war. Rather, would simply overtake the US economy.
5. Potential invasion of Taiwan. Without a doubt, this is the factor most likely to become reason to start a war between the two states. The US has been deliberately vague about how it deals with Taiwan, because that acts as a deterrent to China. However, China have been increasingly aggressive towards Taiwan, and Taiwan expect the US to ally with them.
As a conclusion, I will then rank these in the conclusion from least to most likely to be reason to start a war - nuclear deterrents, end of US unipolarity, thucydides trap in relation to geography, china's economy and Taiwan.
Due to a serious family accident, I'm in no mental state to continue writing the essay. I have fully planned it out, begun writing and have all the sources (17 in total) and quotations I think are pertinent to the argument. I don't mean to use all or the full quotes I've picked out, as the word count would be way over, but have highlighted quotes I definitely want in green.
Please don’t hesitate to message me if anything needs clarifying. Thank you!
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Realism and International Security: Will the U.S. and China go to War?
Perhaps the most significant challenge to U.S. power is the rise of China (Heywood, 46). The rise of China as a superpower has been a polemic point of discussion in recent years, particularly regarding its relationship with the United States, the current ‘global’ hegemon. Scholars from distinct schools of thought remain divided on whether China can rise peacefully or in direct conflict with the U.S. is inevitable. The U.S. assumed its current position by asserting its power and dominance, and there have been concerns about whether China would choose the same route. By focusing on the ‘end’ of U.S. unipolarity; the Thucydides Trap and its geographical deterrents; nuclear deterrents; Sino-American economic independence beside, China’s economic growth; and the potential reannex of Taiwan; this essay will argue that while the U.S. and China have the capability of starting a way, neither has good enough reasons, yet, to enter into one. As discussed in the essay, both states recognise that engaging hostilely is detrimental and costly to their interests and international politics. Further, this essay will rank these reasons from least to most likely to trigger war and explore them through offensive and defensive realism lenses.
End of U.S. Unipolarity
Since the end of the Cold War, the world transitioned into a unipolar world with the U.S. as the supreme power. The Cold War era presented the world with a bipolarity structure that was seen as a necessary system that would help the superpowers balance their powers (Nye, 84). However, with the U.S. remaining as the only country with a multifaceted character through its capabilities militarily, geographically, economically, and technologically, the world ushered in a unipolarity structure with the U.S. as the unipole (Ikenberry, Mastanduno, & Wohlforth, 1). For the past four decades, the world has watched the U.S. ascend and maintain its supremacy. However, its pursuit of hegemon status soon made it susceptible to counter-hegemonic balancing by other up-and-coming powers (Layne, 7). While in the past it was seen that the U.S. capabilities were beyond reach, currently, China is proving to be a stern force behind hegemonic counter-balancing efforts, and with good reason, Layne (7) indicates that the days of the U.S. maintaining its dominance are numbered.
Heywood (52) rightfully indicates that the 19th century was dominated by the European nations buoyed by the industrial revolution. The 20th century saw the U.S. dominate and extend its dominance far and wide. In the 21st century, so far, the U.S. has maintained its primacy, however, Heywood predicts that the 21st century could, in the end, be termed the “Asian century” (52). China’s looming dominance is sizable owing to its sustained growth in wealth and the largest population on earth. Therefore, there is a widespread belief that China will seek to assert its power a bit more aggressively, and the standard realists predict intense competition will ensue. However, like the U.S., the expectation is that China will face a lot of resistance, and there is a likelih...
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