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Topic:

The ACH Process and Possible Hypotheses

Essay Instructions:

Answer Both separately
1. This week discuss the process of ACH. It is a tradecraft tool used to dissect complex problems. Use this weeks DB to help each other understand the process.
2. A complete ACH will be your final project. We will start this week by reviewing the process. It is an excellent tool to look at how to safeguard the U.S. from threats. Earlier we discussed threats from HTS and AQ. What I want you to do this week is to use the discussion board and work together to discuss this process and possible Hypothesis that can be looked at. The question.
What is the is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS?
For this assignment come up with 6-12 Hypothesis that you could use to complete an ACH.
This is not an intuitive process. It takes some getting used to at first, but in the end you may find it is a great tool in your intelligence toolbox.
PLEASE SEE ATTACHED DOCUMENTS AND URLS:
https://www(dot)start(dot)umd(dot)edu/blog/exploring-impact-executive-orders-using-analysis-competing-hypotheses
https://www(dot)digitalshadows(dot)com/blog-and-research/the-devil-the-details-and-the-analysis-of-competing-hypothesis/

Essay Sample Content Preview:

HLS 6030 Discussion 6/Assignment
Student’s Name
Institutional Affiliation
HLS 6030 Discussion 6/Assignment
1 The ACH Process
Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) is an analytical technique used to evaluate multiple competing hypotheses for specific data. The method is suitable in judgments that involve high risk of error in reasoning (Barth, Rutter, Hoodjer, & Quinn, 2017). It helps analysis to overcome or minimize cognitive limitations that may hinder appropriate intelligence analysis. The following steps form an outline of the ACH process.
* Identification of the possible hypotheses
* Creating a list of the important evidence in support of or against the hypotheses.
* Preparing a hypothesis against evidence matrix, refining the matrix, which involves eliminating weak evidence and arguments.
* Developing tentative conclusions regarding the various possibilities.
* Analysis of the sensitivity to critical evident items
* Drawing conclusions
* Highlighting the milestones as the basis for future observations.
2 The ACH Process and Possible Hypotheses
The United States has been battling terror threats mainly from the al Qae...
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