What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS Essay Sample
Complete an ACH on any one of the following possible topics:
ISIS and the future
This is the subject to examine and for you to determine your own hypothesis statements.
BELOW ARE MY HYPOTHESIS STATEMENTS THAT I WANT YOU TO INCORPORATE:
The United States has been battling terror threats mainly from the al Qaeda and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) groups both at home and abroad. The most memorable attack carried out by the AQ is the 9/11 attack, which affected the country both at the domestic and international levels. This discussion applies the ACH process to assess the possibility of a similar attack from either AQ or HTS terror groups. Therefore, the discussion question will be:
1. What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS?
The following hypotheses will guide ACH process.
H0 (A) – There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H0 (B) – There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS.
H1 – There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets at home.
H2 – There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets abroad.
H3 – There will be no significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets at home
H4 – There will be no significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets abroad.
References
Barth, S., Rutter, M., Hoodjer, S., & Quinn, N. (2017, May 12). Exploring the Impact of Executive Orders Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Retrieved from https://www(dot)start(dot)umd(dot)edu/blog/exploring-impact-executive-orders-using-analysis-competing-hypotheses
1. You will be responsible for: Hypothesis Generation
2.Evidence
3. Creation of your matrix
4. Elimination of non-diagnostic material
5. Quantifying your results
6. Gauging factors that could have influenced change
7. Present each hypothesis relative to the others
8. Identify potential evidence that might alter your conclusions. (revise conclusion necessary?)
PLEASE SEE ATTACHED EXAMPLE OF HOW IT SHOULD LOOK.
ACH: The Risk of Another 9/11 Type OF Attack by AQ and HTS
Students Name:
Institutional Affiliation:
Instructors Name:
Course:
Due Date of Submission:
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis Question: What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS?
After the devastating 9/11 attack against the US, it has been on the lookout to find out any possibility of a similar attack. These terrorist threats are mainly from groups like Al- Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This analysis is therefore done to evaluate theoretical grounds of argument. It utilizes the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses method of research, and the different hypotheses made include the ones listed below.
HO (A)- There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
HO (B)- There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H1- There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H2-There will be a substantial increase in the dangers of stories by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on US targets abroad
H3- There will be no significant increase in risks of actions by AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H4- There will be no significant increase in the chances of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets abroad.
Analysis Matrix:
HYPOTHESES
EVIDENCE
H0 (A): There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H0(B): There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H1: There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US Targets at home
H2: There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on US targets abroad
H3: There will be no significant increase in risks of plots by AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H4- There will be no significant increase in risks of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets abroad.
E1:the majority of the AQ attacks now concentrate on soft targets like hotels frequented by US citizens abroad. (Clayton, 2018)
-
++
+
++
-
-
E2: Executive branch of government is reevaluating and strengthening counterterrorism policies and Acts. (Szubin, 2015).
+
-
-
-
+
+
E3:the presence of successful terrorist activities in the US jurisdiction abroad. (CRS, 2018)
-
++
0
+
-
-
E4:AQ has been able to maintain its members and recruit more members and support. (Clayton, 2018)
-
+
+
+
_
-
E5: Ability to conduct Aviation Threats. (Coats, 2017)
+
+
+
+
-
-
Undermining evidence
3
1
1
1
4
4
Supportive evidence
2
4
3
4
1
1
Neutral
0
0
1
0
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