Presidential Election

Presidential Election Your Name Subject and Section Professor’s Name September 12, 2019 Presidential and other nationwide elections have always been treated by Americans like a game. Before the actual election, representatives and volunteers of the opposing parties would compete in attracting publicity in every corner of the nation. Polling entities would even hold a public opinion survey, which aims to give a pre-game idea of who is most likely to win. During the election, Americans would stop in awe, while watching live coverages of poll stations around the country. And after the election, citizens would wait patiently while the live count comes pouring in and watch anxiously for the prevailing winner. However, the nation has always been surprised with the differences in the results of the polls and the results. In fact, many Americans said that they did not expect the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential Elections. While there are many possible factors for the disparity between the polls and the actual results, two of the main factors that cause this are (1) nonresponse bias and (2) the electoral system. Causes for Disparities One of the major reasons for the difference between pre-election poll results and actual results is the phenomenon called ‘non-response bias’ CITATION Mer16 \l 1033 (Mercer, Deane, & McGeeny, 2016). A non-response bias occurs when the people who are given the opportunity to answer surveys fails to answer due to a number of factors, yet the results are treated as ‘representative’. To understand this, imagine a survey conducted among 100 individuals, with candidates A and B having 40 and 60 supporters, respectively. If the poll surveys 40 random people through phone, and only the supporters of the Candidate A have phones, then the resulting poll would undoubtedly favor this candidate. In an article written by Kurtzleben (2...