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1 page/β‰ˆ275 words
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MLA
Subject:
Social Sciences
Type:
Essay
Language:
English (U.S.)
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Topic:

Flaws or Incoherence of the Surprise Test Paradox

Essay Instructions:

INDIVIDUAL ESSAY: Answer section 1 (200 words) and section 2 (100 words)
ESSAY SECTIONS
1) Your first goal is to do your best to resolve the surprise test paradox, as it is formulated above. Doing this will involve doing one of the following:
a) Show why Prof wins! Clearly explain the flaw in the Student’s Argument given below and how this flaw accounts for the fact that it is possible for Prof to create a strategy that guarantees that Stu is surprised. What would Prof’s strategy be?
b) Show why Stu wins! Clearly explain how it is possible that (even if there were a hundred boxes, or a million boxes) there are no boxes that Prof could hide the test in that would guarantee that Stu would be surprised. In other words, how can Stu (who is fully rational) have sufficient evidence to justify believing that the test will be on every upcoming day in an arbitrarily long series of days.
c) Show that the formulation of the Surprise Test Paradox is fundamentally flawed! Clearly explain what specific problem exists in the statement of the paradox that tricks us into thinking that there is a paradox here, where none actually exists. In other words, why is the statement of the problem itself logically incoherent? Explaining this error would also need to explain what goes wrong in the Student’s Argument.
2) Your second goal is to demonstrate that you understand the shortcomings (i.e., problems or deficiencies) in the resolution that you have just offered.
3) Your third goal is to offer any further interesting critical insights into this paradox, similar to what was done in the other paradox resolutions.*
* In thinking about #3 above, here are some of the things you could discuss:
• Other possible resolutions, and objections to these.
• Other objections to your resolution, and responses to these.
• Ways to strengthen the paradox to make it harder to resolve or more relevant.
• Valuable lessons that can be learned from the paradox or your method of resolving it, such as how it can be applied to how people live their lives.
• Discussion of potential reasons to think that the paradox is incoherent or based on some flawed presupposition.

Essay Sample Content Preview:
Name
Instructor
Course
Date
Surprise test paradox
a) Show why Prof wins! Clearly explain the flaw in the Student’s Argument given below and how this flaw accounts for the fact that it is possible for Prof to create a strategy that guarantees that Stu is surprised. What would Prof’s strategy be?
Prof wins when the algorithm is accurate and Stu is surprised that he was able to identify the box with the token. Even if prof cannot make an accurate prediction when the first box is opened it is expected that there will be no surprise. However, when prof then decides to test the other boxes since she would choose other boxes and not the first time. When there are two boxes it can be predicted that if the first has no token so there is guarantee that the token is still somewhere among the nine boxes and it is also possible that the first chosen did not contain the token.
b) Show why Stu wins! Clearly explain how it is possible that (even if there were a hundred boxes, or a million boxes) there are no boxes that Prof could hide the test in that would guarantee that Stu would be surprised. In other words, how can Stu (who is fully rational) have sufficient evidence to justify believing that the test will be on every upcoming day in an arbitrarily long series of days.
Deducing from the argument the token cannot be in box1 for there to be a surprise that the algorithm can make a prediction. If it is not possible to prove surprise the student wins. There is only one option and all the other possibilities can be eliminated, but choosing the correct box is still a matter of chance. As such it is possible for the prof to fail to choose the correct option in the first instance, but if the test is repeated the correct box is chosen. The number of possibilities increases depe...
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