Prospect Theory and Regional Conflict: Russia's Decision-Making in Ukraine

Prospect Theory and Regional Conflict: A Case Study of Russia Decision-making in Ukraine
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Prospect Theory and Regional Conflict: A Case Study of Russia Decision-making in Ukraine
Introduction
External analysts keep struggling to comprehend why and how Vladimir Putin makes judgments about the deployment of Russian power overseas, including Ukraine. Behind the United States and NATO, Russia is the most assertive state to frame or reorganize the global order. Putin and the Russian elite have stated that they want to re-establish themselves as a regional superpower and a more prominent player in the international arena. Notwithstanding this, there is no agreement on Putin's intention to wield all aspects of Russian authority worldwide like in Ukraine. This paper seeks to underscore foreign policy decision-making based on Prospect Theory that increases the possibility of regional conflicts, particularly the Ukraine-Russia conflict's current event. In the event of underwriting this, the paper will initially expound prospect theory, then follow by a background of the Russia-Ukraine war before applying the approach into the decision-making process by one of the players (Russia). The paper chooses Russia's decision-making in the conflict since Russia has the perceived gains and risks but prefers to decide based on the profits regardless of the many dangers.
Following a short description of Prospect Theory, this research will review the relevant literature on a dispute judgment call. It will then define the numerous assumptions obtained from Prospect Theory relevant to the analysis of violence in greater detail. Prospect Theory is applied to a related topic in which extensive study has been undertaken.
For the sake of convenience and consistency, this paper will look at Putin's decisions from the perspective of prospect theory. After a quick review of what prospect theory has to do with an authoritarian ruler like Putin, the paper focuses on recent incidents to figure out his frame of reference. The report will conclude with broad insights to help readers comprehend how Russian President Vladimir Putin might make future choices.
Prospect Theory
Three fundamental human assertions define prospect Theory:
* Actors estimate outcomes using a basis of comparison.
* An actor's optimization model is harsher for losses than for benefits.
* Players are risk-averse for benefits but danger-acceptant for damages.
The decision-making procedure is separated into two phases. The initial 'editing' involves determining and specifying the benefits and drawbacks associated with distinct result alternatives using an unbiased basis of comparison (Levy, 1992 p.172). The future results are evaluated per the perceptual preferences during the second stage, assessment. These prejudices influence players' decision-making procedures, both explicitly and implicitly, in systematic, foreseeable methods that generate consequences that are frequently opposed to what a typical cost-benefit evaluation would anticipate (Wakker, 2010 p. 3). In conclusion, this paper will seek to demonstrate that the assertion that players assess multiple alternatives based...