CJS 6125 DF4 Comments on Terrorist Activities

Comment on these two post as if you were me with 100 WORDS PER 3 QUESTIONS, DO NOT COMPARE THE POSTS, and put 3 references for each post, and please separate the references with the post it was made for.
Bradley Sutton
The indicators of Al-Qaida (AQ) that I would seek would be the ISR cycle that AQ has generally followed for the attacks leading up to 9/11. All of these attacks were planned in some fashion, participants in the eventual attacks would blend in with their target country, and conduct surveillance of the targets. The CIA knew of the planning meeting in Malaysia and at least two of the hijackers coming to America in 2000 (Stein, 2015). Had they shared the information with the FBI, who already knew of AQ plans to use planes, they could have plausibly connected the dots. I cannot say this with 100% certainty but it was somewhat foreseeable.
Assuming that ISIS and AQ are significantly the weakest in 2017 I would opt for Sun Tzu's theory of winning without fighting. Wars are expensive, and fighting them, or antagonizing them by going after supply lines, would not be in line with U.S. national will. I would suggest, using just two examples, that the U.S. could counter Chinese and Russian aggression with promoting American principles in Asia (anti-corruption, free elections, etc.) and counterintelligence operations, respectively.
Three challenges in transitioning are the creation of a political system that can reflect Western democratic traditions but adhere to local cultural and political realities; lack of support when U.S. interests are not being served in remote areas; and lack of surrender resulting in an insurgency (Snow, 2014, pp. 314-315). Respectively, these might be addressed by accepting/promoting autonomous rule in transitioning societies (i.e. tribalism in Afghanistan), partnering with international parties that do have an interest in the area and applying lesson learns to stop insurgencies, such as not disbanding indigenous armies that may patrol points of entry.
Richard Rodarte
1. The 1993 bombings and the attempts on the USS Cole were not strong enough indications that terrorists were threatening to pose the attack of the magnitude that was 9/11, considering that most of those attempted terrorist attacks listed were deemed as unsuccessful. Their targets were not destroyed, their payloads did not detonate. Factors that analysts should be watching out for when finding trends related to terrorism could be the following; an increase in recruitment and propaganda activity. Increased levels of U.S. involvement in regions known for terrorist cells to have made their bases of operations, and repeated breaches of security or protocol not being followed at soft target sites.
2. I personally subscribe to art Art of War by Sun Tzu, one of the greatest military commanders this world has ever seen. There is a reason why his insight is still taught to this day and his disciplines are the gold standard of strategy when engaging in mind games with the opponent. Aggravating an opponent quick to anger, force them to get sloppy, overextend, make mistakes - expose their weaknesses. In the hypervigilant climate of 2017 and beyond, Sun Tzu's teachings are best suited for a war of information, something that warfare has now evolved into given our dependence on technology, accurate real-time information, espionage and planning.
3. One general challenge in the transition to civil authority is the lack of stable infrastructure, as seen in the Afghanistan War. In our attempts to create a strong enough infrastructure that will be able to stand on its own against Al Qaeda (or a similar cell), that keeps U.S. presence too strong in the region, and naturally it is seen as antagonistic. A policy recommendation to alleviate this would be greater support of indigenous abilities and governments from afar; resources, money, if need be, weapons. Another general challenge is a lack of suitable funds to rebuild a state in postwar. That can be alleviated by stronger foreign private sources, once they've seen incentive that their funding will be sustainable and merit some kind of payoff. Finally, a third challenge is peacekeeping as a whole, keeping things non-confrontational. That can be somewhat remedied by an be less egregious intrusions into the actual philosophies of the region and its cultures.