Covid-19 and the Use of Mathematical Tools

MATH5103 M5 Application
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MATH5103 M5 Application
The article "Can mathematical modeling solve the current Covid-19 crisis? Panovska-Griffiths (2020) highlights the challenge of finding a perfect modeling approach to guide non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at confining the spread of Covid-19 transmission. Mathematical modeling of an epidemic is essential to understanding how it spreads within a population to identify appropriate interventions. So far, there has been no modeling approach that accurately mimics the spread of coronavirus within populations. No model can accurately predict the epidemic curve representing the number of infections caused by the pandemic over time. Even so, several mathematical tools can be introduced against the backdrop of the article. Two examples of these mathematical tools are spreadsheets and databases. Spreadsheets are essential mathematical tools in epidemics because they are not only widely available, but they can also be employed for gathering data, statistical analysis, and generating graphs and tables, which can be exported into other mathematical tools for further analysis.
For instance, Excel spreadsheets can store numeric and text epidemiological data within the matrix of rows and columns. This data can then be organized, statistically analyzed, and shared with surveillance systems. This process of collecting, assessing, and surveilling trends in infection rates is called descriptive epidemiology. It is essential to answer the what, where, when, among whom, and how many questions about an infectious disease. Excel spreadsheets allow epidemiologists to record the time, place, and first victims of an epidemic, over and above the prevalence of infection rates. After filling these data into the spreadsheet, it is possible for the epidemiologist to organize, display, and share the same with the statistician. The health statistician can then interpret the raw data by conducting various statistical analyses. The spreadsheet also allows health officials to monitor the efficacy of prevention and control programs by comparing current data with historical counts. On the other hand, the database is an essential mathematical tool that allows for a more comprehensive and rigorous examination of an epidemic, particularly the efficacy of prevention and control programs.
Epidemiology databases help public health officials, researchers, health policymakers, health educationists, and health managers comprehend the prevalence of an epidemic, its determinants, symptoms, mortality and morbidity statistics, aggravating factors, causing factors, disease trends, and ways of prevention. The database is more comprehensive than a spreadsheet in that it contains a wealth of information not restricted to a single health domain. It bolsters and streamlines data collection so that geographically separated health providers and researchers can monitor the epidemic and even contain it. For this reason, the database is a critical mathematical tool in terms of ensuring the collaboration of various healthcare actors and providing comprehensive data to allow for in-depth investigation of the disease. Databases pro...