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APA
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Business & Marketing
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English (U.S.)
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Topic:

Estimated Market Share for Light Vehicles in the US

Essay Instructions:

The auto industry is currently undergoing a few significant changes around the world. Three of the most significant changes happening now and likely to evolve further are:
Development and popularity of ride-share services like Uber
Development and increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)
Development of autonomous driving
On top of the above three industry-specific trends, other long-term socio-economic trends are happening in almost all parts of the world.
In addition to these long-term trends, supply-chain issues have also impacted the last two years. Please keep those in mind as you develop your thoughts and answers to this assignment.
It is 2023, and a major global car company has hired you to help them estimate the overall market size (in units) for light vehicles (cars, SUVs, and light trucks) in the US in 2035.
As you can imagine, the significant three changes mentioned above (and socio-economic trends) will significantly impact the overall market size of light vehicles.
Using no more than 500 words, please estimate the market size for light vehicles (in units) in 2035 in the US and explain the rationale behind your estimate based on the three factors above plus socio-economic trends.
Of course, you need to submit your estimate as “number of units” (or a reasonable range). But this exercise is more about reasoning and logic and how you will factor in all the key factors (especially the primary three factors listed above) that will influence the market size 12 years from now. So please give your reasoning clearly that shows your understanding of how various vital factors will affect the future market size for light vehicles.
If you make any assumptions (which you will most likely make), please state the same. Please cite any external sources of data/information you use to write this assignment paper.
Historical (1976-2021) sales data of light vehicles in the US is shown below. I downloaded this from Statista.com https://www(dot)statista(dot)com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/

Essay Sample Content Preview:

Estimated Market Share for Light Vehicles in the US
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Estimated Market Share for Light Vehicles in the US
The overall market size for light vehicles in the United States is gradually growing. Currently, total light vehicle sales stand at around 15.7 million, up from 13.5 million in 2022 (Carlier, 2022). This is a change of around 16.3% from last year. A similar growth trend was witnessed between 2009 and 2018. However, the decline in the market size between 2019 and 2022 could be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic that prompted widespread shutdowns following the stay-at-home orders and closure of nonessential businesses (Fortune Business Insights, 2021). These measures limited movement, reducing the sale of light vehicles. Since the US economy is slowly recovering after COVID-19, the auto industry is manufacturing more light vehicles to meet consumer demands. By 2035, the overall market size for light vehicles in the US will be approximately 20-25 million. This is due to the development and popularity of ride-share services, the development and increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), and the development of autonomous driving.
The ride-sharing market is one of the main reasons light vehicles will have a huge market size in the next twelve years. Studies show that ride-sharing services are gaining popularity because they are cheaper than owning a car (Fortune Business Insights, 2021). The cost of purchasing, insuring, hiring, and maintaining a personal car is higher than a ride. It would take thousands of rides to equate to these costs. Ride-sharing services also reduce emissions, traffic congestion, and vehicle trips (Fortune Business Insights, 2021). Many people in the US, especially millennials, prefer ride-sharing services for these reasons. This means that ride-sharing services will continue to grow. The growth of this market will create a high demand for more light vehicles, forcing manufacturers to produce more cars for the b...
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