One-Child Policy and Economic Development

One Child Policy and Economic Development
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Table of Contents Introduction. 3 Literature Review.. 4 Data. 6 Empirical Methodology. 7 Results. 9 Robustness Check. 10 Discussion. 11 Conclusion. 13 References. 15 Appendix. 17
One Child Policy and Economic Development
Introduction
The One Child Policy (OCP), implemented in China in the late 1970s, has been a topic of significant debate among economists, policymakers, and demographers. The policy's primary goal was to control population growth in the world's most populous country, but it has also had profound impacts on the social and economic landscape of China. (Feng et al., 2016) However, the long-term implications of such a policy on the overall economic development are difficult to ascertain due to the multitude of factors involved. Some studies have shown that the policy may have had a positive impact on economic growth due to the reduction in the number of dependents in the population (Feng, Cai, & Hu, 2013), which led to increased savings and investment. On the other hand, other studies argue that the policy has led to a shortage of labor, which has driven up wages and led to higher inflation, ultimately slowing economic growth.
This study focuses on analyzing the causal impact of the One Child Policy on China's GDP per capita. The study examines the relationship between the policy and various factors that could affect economic growth, including the total fertility rate, childbearing age, years of schooling, male-to-female birth ratio, and infant mortality rate. Through regression analysis, the study finds that the One Child Policy has a statistically significant negative impact on GDP per capita, even when controlling for other factors. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate about the effectiveness and consequences of the One Child Policy and raise important questions about the long-term implications of such policies on economic development.
The researcher employs an empirical approach using a linear regression model and relying on data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI). The main result reveals a strong association between the One Child Policy and GDP per capita, with several of the explanatory variables displaying significant effects on economic growth. Specifically, years of schooling and male-to-female birth ratio are found to have a substantial impact, while the total fertility rate and childbearing age show weaker relationships with GDP per capita.
Nevertheless, the researcher is aware of several restrictions that apply to the current investigation. First, there is a possibility that the findings are affected by omitted variable bias. This is because the constructed model did not consider all elements that could affect GDP per capita. Second, the causal effect of the One Child Policy may be obscured by the influence of other policies or external variables that have also had an impact on China's economic progress over time. The use of more robust identification procedures, such as instrumental variable approaches or difference-in-differences analyses, could be implemented in potential future research to investigate these concerns in greater depth.
The...