Forecasting terrorism

Caution! Read the scenario background and the raw intelligence provided below as an attachment before you begin this assignment. The TIIE and the RAP both use the same scenario and raw intelligence details (NYC, Sarin, al Qaida, etc.). Your indicators in this assignment MUST apply to that scenario/raw intelligence.
Context. This exercise is "step two" in assessing your knowledge of terrorist group psychology/motivation, CBW agent specifics and historical case studies of attempted production and use, specific terrorist group modus operandus, and over of terrorist forecasting methodologies (ASAP and Khalsa). Step two is to apply that knowledge in an analytical effort to make "educated guesses" on expected terrorist group behavior and signature activity that might be observed. Step three, due next week, will be to frame an essay that discusses all the previous steps and how you use them in a larger forecasting effort using one forecasting methodology.
Research has shown that terrorist pre-attack activity generates a relatively predictable pattern of activity and behavior that presents a potential for intelligence collection by various means. The use of a CBRN weapon/agent in a terrorist attack also requires unique activity and behavior that presents significant potential for intelligence indicators that can help intelligence analysts, law enforcement officials, and other officials create a collections plan to focus on these indicators. These collection indicators must present specific instances of events or "signatures" relevant to terrorist activity or CBRN use far ahead enough to provide useful intelligence. "A Sarin attack occurs" is not an indicator, because it is the attack event itself that kills in seconds. A terrorist action that occurs weeks or months prior to the attack that is relevant to the target, method, travel, weapon, or other elements of the attack CAN be useful and can be acted upon. Indicators overall must be early, observable, diagnostic, and relevant. The attached document is a study on the use of indicators to signal terrorist attack pre-operational activity. It can serve to familiarize students with the use of indicators beyond the material already provided in weeks 4 and 5.
Exercise Purpose. Use the provided intelligence and background information relevant to the RAP to develop a list of six pre-operational intelligence collection indicators: two on expected terrorist group behavior (modus operandus), two on expected CW agent acquisition and dissemination, and two on specific terrorist group motivations/psychology.
Provide sufficient detail on the indicator so as to facilitate notional intelligence collections and the rationale in a few sentences as to why this is a logical indicator of terrorist/CBRN activity.
Provide cited references in Turabian format (endnotes/footnotes AND a bibliography) to course materials to back up your logic for every indicator. These indicators should represent a thoughtful assessment of the raw intelligence in the hypothetical scenario as it relates to important course themes on terrorist modus operandi, mindset and psychology, and the technical realities of acquiring and/or producing CBRN weapons/agents. These indicators would be used in the real world in plans by counterterrorism agencies to conduct all-source collection efforts in an attempt to prevent a forecasted attack, so they must be specific enough to act upon (hypothetically). Bad example: "pre-operational establishment of xxx." Good example: "Establishment of xxx within xx miles of New York City, within xxx days of the expected attack date."
Exercise objective. Recognize that analysis of terrorist-CBRNE precedent, strategy, and psychology supports terrorism forecasts upon which itinerant and guided intelligence, counterterrorism, antiterrorism, and preventive operations may be formulated and directed.
Format. Use full citations (footnotes/endnotes) for all information you find through research. Use Turabian style for notes and Bibliography. This assignment will be 400 words in length (+/- 10%), not counting notes/bibliography. This word count forces you to write with precision and economy.
You must use at least six different relevant course materials in this assignment, so you must have a minimum of six citations from six separate sources.
Example format:
Introduction paragraph: describe the assignment context and purpose.
1. Indicator: [example] actor x would accomplish y within a period of z prior to the attack (this is an example, your indicator might not have specific actors, time periods, or actions). Make your collection indicator specific enough to be workable for intelligence or law enforcement to use in practice--where, when, what, who. Put the "why" under "Reasoning" below.
a. Reasoning: [example] Paul Pillar discussed how terrorists typically do x because they need to have y with the goal of z.1
Use full citation and bibliography in Turabian format.
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Endnotes
1 Paul Pillar, "Al Qaida after UBL," Congressional Quarterly .....
Bibliography
Pillar, Paul. "Al Qaida after UBL." Congressional Quarterly .... You must use at least six separate course materials sources (different ones for each indicator justification).
The attached study on terrorist indicators is an especially useful resource if you have trouble coming up with indicators. Several other sources on "warning and indicators" discuss the basic method of using collections indicators in an overall warning effort that is conceptually similar to the Khalsa and ASAP methodologies. It is important to understand that the basic analytical techniques of forecasting in intelligence are essentially the same as those used in structured argumentation techniques.
Caution! Read the scenario background and the raw intelligence attached below before you begin this assignment. The TIIE and the RAP both use the same scenario and raw intelligence details (NYC, Sarin, al Qaida, etc.). Your indicators in this assignment MUST apply to that scenario/raw intelligence.
Please see attached..