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6 pages/β‰ˆ1650 words
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Style:
Chicago
Subject:
Life Sciences
Type:
Essay
Language:
English (U.S.)
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Total cost:
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Topic:

THE PRC-TAIWAN CRISIS; ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE OUTCOMES

Essay Instructions:

Title Page.
(a) Title of the paper: The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative Outcomes
(b) Student Name.
(c) Course Number.
(d) Instructor Name.
(e) Date the paper was completed.
Length: Minimum of six pages, no more than seven pages (double spaced, not including the title page and Selected Bibliography).
Section I: Introduction.
(a) This section briefly summarizes the scenario and the three potential outcomes (Diplomatic Solution or Limited Intervention or Direct Attack).
Section II–Outcome Assessed to be most likely to Occur: [enter outcome here]
(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.
(b) Provide examples from the ACH Matrix supporting and refuting each hypothesis (Step #3).
(c) Identify the “linchpin” evidence and discuss how it ultimately drove your analysis (Step #4).
(d) State the underlying assumptions associated with your linchpin evidence (Step #6)
Section III– Second Most Likely to Occur: [enter outcome here]
(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.
(b) Provide examples from the ACH Matrix supporting and refuting each hypothesis (Step #3).
(c) Identify the “linchpin” evidence and discuss how it ultimately drove your analysis (Step #4).
(d) State the underlying assumptions associated with your linchpin evidence (Step #6)
Section IV- Least Likely to Occur: [enter outcome here]
(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.
(b) Provide examples from the ACH Matrix supporting and refuting each hypothesis (Step #3).
(c) Identify the “linchpin” evidence and discuss how it ultimately drove your analysis (Step #4).
(d) State the underlying assumptions associated with your linchpin evidence (Step #6)
Section V: Conclusion
Citations - The Chicago Manual of Style Format
(a) If a citation comes directly from the PRC-Taiwan scenario students are only required to place the citation in quotations; no Turabian style citation is required.
(b) If a citation comes from a source other than the PRC-Taiwan scenario, then it must be cited using the Turabian format.
(c) A Selected Bibliography is required only if information contained in a report comes from a source other than the PRC-Taiwan scenario. The Selected Bibliography contains all sources consulted and cited in preparing your paper.
Analytical Terms of Reference
Papers must incorporate the following analytical standards which are common
throughout the Intelligence Community. These standards equate to the “content/subject knowledge,” “critical thinking,” and “writing conventions” section of the grading rubric.
Terms of Estimative Probability. The narrative essay should be limited to the terms of estimative probability listed below. Please note, the terms and percentages are designed to provide students with a numerical range of probability and standardize submissions to allow for class comparisons.
(a) Highly Likely + 85% chance
(b) Probable 60-84% chance
(c) About Even 45-55% chance
(d) Possible 35-44% chance
(e) Unlikely 16-34% chance
(f) Highly Unlikely 0-15%
Objectivity: Analysis should be free of emotional content, give due regard to alternative perspectives and contrary reporting, and acknowledge developments that necessitate adjustments to analytic judgments.
Independent of Political Considerations: Assessments should not distort or alter with the intent of supporting or advocating a particular policy, political viewpoint, or audience.
Based on All Available Sources of Intelligence: Analysis should be informed by all relevant information that is available to the analytic element. Knowledge gaps must be identified.

Properly describes quality and reliability of underlying sources: Accurately characterize the information in the underlying sources and explain which information proved key to analytic judgments and why. Factors affecting the weighting that the analysts gives to available, relevant information, such as denial and deception, source access, source motivations and bias, or age and continued currency of information, or other factors affecting the quality and potential reliability of the information, should be included in the product.
Properly distinguished between underlying intelligence and analysts’ assumptions and judgments: Identify underlying causes and/or behavior of systems, people, organizations, states, or conditions. Assumptions comprise the foundational premises on which the information and logical argumentation build to reach analytic conclusions. Judgments are defined as logical inferences from the available information or the results of explicit tests of hypotheses. They comprise the conclusions of the analysts.
Uses logical argumentation. The presentation should facilitate clear understanding of the information and reasoning underlying analytic judgments. Key points should be effectively supported by information or, for more speculative warning by coherent reasoning. Language and syntax should convey meaning unambiguously.

Essay Sample Content Preview:

THE PRC-TAIWAN CRISIS; ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE OUTCOMES
Student's Name
Institutional Affiliation
Course
Date
Introduction
The PRC-Taiwan relations have been characterized by adverse hostilities as each country seeks sovereignty and greater territorial control. PRC has always sought to control Taiwan by asserting its presence and might in Taiwan's territories. On the contrary, Taiwan has been seeking to be independent of any form of influence and has been pursuing its path to independence. Despite the hostilities, the two nations have continued to engage in trade that has boosted both their economic and cultural ties, leading to tremendous growth. The Analysis of Competing Hypothesis framework provides insights on the potential outcome of the relationship between the two states. Based on this framework, three potential outcomes are possible: a diplomatic solution or limited intervention, or direct attack.
Most Probable Outcome (Diplomatic Solution)
The most likely outcome to occur is that there will be a diplomatic solution between the two countries. This decision was arrived at by compiling the number of most likely hypotheses based on the total evidence submitted. The first evidence (H1aE1) pointed towards the possibility of having a diplomatic solution and a limited intervention, and no chance for a direct attack. S. The second evidence H1a E2 pointed to the possibility of all the hypotheses, with a remote possibility of having limited intervention and direct attack but a stronger possibility of still holding diplomatic talks. H1b E3, which talks about the military level alertness by Taiwan is irrelevant to all the hypotheses because Taiwan can only be increasing its surveillance to protect herself. The second evidence, H2a E1, presents a possibility of all of the three hypotheses occurring. The drills could be a warning to the target country to engage in diplomatic resolution. There is also the possibility of either limited intervention or a direct attack because the drills may not serve the intended purpose of scaring the parties into negotiations.
Evidence H2a E2 points towards a diplomatic resolution because the pentagon had confirmed PRC's acceptance to limit mobilization of its forces. There was less likelihood of a limited intervention because the parties were already headed to the negotiation table. Conversely, the possibility of engaging in a direct attack was irrelevant. Evidence H3b E1, which entails agreement by the UN to mediate the process, directly points to the first hypothesis, which is a diplomatic solution. Therefore, the second and third hypotheses are irrelevant to the evidence presented. Evidence H3b E2, which entails Taiwan's agreement to downgrade their military, is also a positive sign towards solving the issue diplomatically. Therefore, the rest of the hypotheses is irrelevant. Finally, evidence H3b E3, which entails the presence of continued good economic ties between the two countries, also pints to the possibility of having a diplomatic solution between the states. The rest of the hypotheses is irrelevant. Therefore, the problem between PRC and Taiwan is likely to be solved through diplomatic relations because it is the hypothesis which the highest number of relevant evidence.
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