The Future of Coffee in 2050 Analysis Essay

The Future of Coffee in 2050
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The Future of Coffee in 2050
Coffee ranks top among the most globally traded items and contribute to millions of farmers' livelihoods significantly. Being a climate-sensitive perennial crop, coffee is undoubtedly susceptible to climatic changes. Increasing temperatures and water shortages will negatively impact the coffee and lower its production. With the growing concern for coffee, there are reportedly 25 million smallholder farmers who will likely be affected in the future. In more than 60 countries across the tropics, the coffee yield will substantially reduce, especially during the plant's vegetative and reproductive stages (Lemelin 2019). For instance, increased temperatures and precipitation often negatively influence the crop's flowering, fruiting, and bean quality. Besides, variables due to climate changes also increase the incidence of pests and diseases that can likely reduce its yield while raising its production cost.
Worldwide, Robusta and Arabica comprise nearly 99% of the global production of coffee. Arabica used in specialty coffees registers its best growth under temperatures ranging between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius. On the contrary, Robusta is of lower quality. However, it is more challenging and highly productive between 22 and 28 degrees Celsius (Pham et al., 2019). Often, bean quality, including the yield of both species, reduces outside these temperature ranges. This is an indicator of their sensitivity to changes in climatic conditions. Also, because coffee plantations can last 30 years and remain productive beyond 50 years, they will likely be influenced by climate change and variability. Again, smallholder coffee farmers will be vulnerable to climatic changes since adaptation for perennial crops such as coffee requires several years to actualize (Pham et al., 2019). From a socio-economic understanding, having a grip of potential adaptation strategies shall be crucial in the maintenance and improvement of coffee production and its profitability and how it sustains the livelihoods of coffee farmers globally.
With the looming crisis of climate change, experts have predicted that of the 124 wild coffee species, nearly 60% are on the verge of extinction. Because most of them are not for consumption, the two leading species- Robusta and Arabica- are seriously threatened. Majorly grown in subtropical highlands of East Africa, Central America, and Brazil, Arabica is the source of about 80% of the world’s coffee (Baca et al., 2014). However, with the high rise in temperatures, including ecological disasters, these crops will no longer have a suitable environment to thrive. Researchers have made estimates that the Arabica species can reduce by 80% within seven decades with the current figures. The Robusta may withstand hotter temperatures but cannot survive in a significant temperature swing or disastrous weather that may come with climate change. Unsurprisingly, other research projections estimate that climate change may render half the land used for coffee production unsustainable by 2050. In essence, coffee lovers may not enjoy its benefits much longer (Baca et al., 2014). In the next 30 years, it remains certain that ...