Light Vehicle Market Estimate

Essay Instructions:

The auto industry is currently undergoing a few significant changes around the world. Three of the most significant changes happening now and likely to evolve further are:
Development and popularity of ride-share services like Uber
Development and increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)
Development of autonomous driving
On top of the above three industry-specific trends, other long-term socio-economic trends are happening in almost all parts of the world.
In addition to these long-term trends, supply-chain issues have also impacted the last two years. Please keep those in mind as you develop your thoughts and answers to this assignment.
It is 2023, and a major global car company has hired you to help them estimate the overall market size (in units) for light vehicles (cars, SUVs, and light trucks) in the US in 2035.
As you can imagine, the significant three changes mentioned above (and socio-economic trends) will significantly impact the overall market size of light vehicles.
Using no more than 500 words, please estimate the market size for light vehicles (in units) in 2035 in the US and explain the rationale behind your estimate based on the three factors above plus socio-economic trends.
Of course, you need to submit your estimate as “number of units” (or a reasonable range). But this exercise is more about reasoning and logic and how you will factor in all the key factors (especially the primary three factors listed above) that will influence the market size 12 years from now. So please give your reasoning clearly that shows your understanding of how various vital factors will affect the future market size for light vehicles.
If you make any assumptions (which you will most likely make), please state the same. Please cite any external sources of data/information you use to write this assignment paper.
Historical (1976-2021) sales data of light vehicles in the US is shown below. I downloaded this from Statista.com https://www(dot)statista(dot)com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/

Essay Sample Content Preview:

Light Vehicle Market Estimate
Your Name
Subject and Section
Professor’s Name
February 17, 2023
Estimating the market size for light vehicles (cars, SUVs, and light trucks) in the US in 2035 requires consideration of multiple factors. Nevertheless, in 2021, reports show that the United States sold approximately 14.9 million units, including “retail sales of about 3.3 million autos and just under 11.6 million light truck units” (Statista.com, 2022). Accordingly, the author believes that estimates would be based on this baseline and analyzed in relation to various economic considerations.
Key Factors
Ride-sharing Apps
One consideration should be that the use of ride-share services like Uber and Lyft has the potential to change the way people think about car ownership. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center in 2021, “approximately 36% of American adults reported using ride-sharing services such as Uber or Lyft” (Jiang, 2020). As these services continue to grow, more people may decide not to purchase their vehicles.
Adoption of Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving Technology
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles will likely significantly impact the light vehicles market. As battery technology continues to improve and production costs decrease, EV adoption is likely to increase (US Department of Energy, n.d.). This trend may lead to a reduction in demand for traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.
Additionally, the development of autonomous driving technology (ADT) is another factor that could influence the market size for light vehicles. As this technology improves and becomes more widely adopted, it has the potential to reduce the number of ac...

Updated on January 26, 2024

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Light Vehicle Market Estimate

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