Time Series Modeling of the US Migration Trends

Time series modeling of the US migration trends
This project involves obtaining and analyzing net migration data into the US from January 1962 to January 2017. Approximately 214 million individuals, or roughly 3% of the world's population, live outside their home nations. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon emphasized the need to harness the positive aspects of migration for the global good, noting that we live in an age of mobility, with more people on the move than at any other time in human history (2015). Migrant labor is desirable and necessary for economic growth and recovery from an underlying setback such as a downturn. Migration is critical for the transfer of work and skills and the knowledge and innovation required for global progress. It is important to understand migration trends to address the issues raised by global migration; it is necessary to improve international coordination.
Various time series forecasting methods will be applied in forecasting migration trends for the next five years ahead. The data used in the study contains US net migration statistics obtained from the Federal Reserve Economic Data, World Bank Release: World Development Indicators. Net migration is the overall number of migrants during a given period less the annual number of emigrations, including citizens and noncitizens. The figures are estimates based on five years. The features of time series financial observations such as trend, seasonality, irregular movements, and normality are explored. Various time series forecasting methods are applied, and their associated accuracy measures analyzed. The particular interest in choosing this observation was informed by the need to analyses the correlation among the stated section-economic variables.
Since the Census Bureau began conducting CPS surveys in the 1940s, internal migration rates have been at an all-time low. During the Great Recession, the number of people moving decreased dramatically, and it has remained low ever since. 2. Most people who relocate inside the United States do it within counties rather than across states or between states. Similarly, migration will slow the aging process in prosperous areas while speeding it up in impoverished areas. The majority of countries and regions that experience population declines do so mostly due to natural change (the difference between births and deaths), whereas areas that gain population do so primarily due to migration from outside Europe populationeducation.org (2019).
Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens. Data are five-year estimates.
DATE SMPOPNETMUSA
1 1/1/1962 1835728
2 1/1/1967 1556054
3 1/1/1972 2889346
4 1/1/1977 3770881
5 1/1/1982 3382460
6 1/1/1987 3366853
The time series plot of net migration trend observations presents some features typical to time series observations, such as a pattern of upward and downward fluctuation, which is observed through the entire length of the data. It also appears from the plot if the changes are exhibit cyclical variations. The trend component is quite conspicuous in the observations where there ...