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Mathematics & Economics
Statistics Project
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Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) and the Reduction of the Proportion of Drinking (Statistics Project Sample)


Use the results from the third and fourth homeworks, what you have learned in class and from reading the papers for the course to answer the following questions. How much does the Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) reduce the proportion of the population that drinks? How much does the MLDA reduce crime? Also compute the effect of the MLDA on arrests in terms of per person drinking using an in 0-strumental variables approach. Do you think the IV assumptions are met in this context?
Paper2_draft_graded.pdf - Is the sample of the failed paper, please do not write like that.


Zheyi Zheng
Econ 104
May 30th, 2019
Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) and the Reduction of the Proportion of Drinking
Population, Crime Rates, and Arrests
The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime (MLDA) is a policy in the US that sets the minimum age where people can legally purchase and consume alcohol as 21 years . This policy limits people below 21 years getting access to alcohol. The analysis focuses on whether the MLDA, affects arrest and crime rates using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHS). The data includes other demographic variables and help s to compare alcohol use patterns under and above 21 years. Graphs, regression including and the Delta method were used to organize and analyze the data. Based on the regression results, the MLDA reduce the arrest rates of people under 21 years old and the effect on crime is statistically significance with the crimes. There were 82 per 1000 less crimes committed by individuals over 21. The IV assumptions were met and the policy reduced the crime rates and arrests.
1. Introduction
The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime (MLDA) is a policy and type of social regulation in the US that specifies that people are to buy, and consume alcohol legally when they are at least 21 years of age (Toomey, Nelson, and Lenk 1958). The policy is linked to the social belief that alcohol is more harmful to young people and places them at risk. Alcohol consumption is a public health problem that requires immediate preventive actions and health promotion. According to Carpenter and Dobkin (521), harm and damages linked alcohol consumption cost more than $50 billion each year. When there is harmful or undesirable behavior in society the state implements different types of actions: such as economic regulation through tax to discourage behavior and / or correct negative externalities, am information campaign to create awareness and change behavior, and another action is coercive measures to prohibits certain behavior and implement laws.
To determine whether there is a link between MLDA, arrest and crime data sets on alcohol consumption from the National Health Interview Survey (NHS) and arrest rates for California are used. The NIHS database includes demographic data and outcomes for different groups. Using this information it is possible to analyze how the minimum legal drinking age has affected overall drinking, arrests, and crime rates. Using instrumental variation (IV) approach that compares the rates of arrests for young adults who have just turned 21 years old with those ones who are about to turn 21.
The MLDA reduces the rates of alcohol consummation and crime rates and mortality rates. Using the IV estimation, drinking alcohol was associated with higher crime and death rates and since the IV and the MLDA are valid instruments, the regression results are reliable. Crime reduced by 8.2% for the individuals above 21 years, and indicates that changing the legal drinking age would also affect the crime rates. Prohibiting the sale or serving of alcohol limits access to the alcoholic beverages and reduces the risk of engaging in risky behavior.
2. Data
The NHS data are a subsection of the CDC, and helps to understand health trends with the datasets to investigate how MLDA affects the crime rates, and how the policy reduces the mortality rate. The individuals in the NHS are randomly selected and report about their health and lifestyle, and since there is randomization they represent many of the people and households. Alcohol consumption varies by age. The data is classified according to the demographic variables, for which the data has been collected the data for several years making it easier to determine the trends and ...

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