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Style:
APA
Subject:
Mathematics & Economics
Type:
Statistics Project
Language:
English (U.S.)
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Topic:

MSEM 530 – MANAGERIAL DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY.

Statistics Project Instructions:

MSEM 530 – MANAGERIAL DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
MID-TERM EXAM – Part 1
Page 1 of 2
Name: Date:
General Instructions:
1. This is a closed book / closed notes exam.
2. Time available is 60 minutes.
3. Read all problems completely and carefully.
4. Write your answer neatly and clearly.
5. Please ask if you need clarification of a question.
Problem 1:
Decision analyses generally deals with those decisions that have one or more of the following characteristics:
1) They must be important.
2) They are probably unique.
3) They allow some time for study.
4) They are complex.
5) They involve uncertainty.
In two or three sentences, briefly describe what each of these characteristics mean to you.
Problem 2:
Decisions have three categories of knowledge associated with their outcome:
1) Certainty
2) Risk
3) Uncertainty
In two or three sentences, briefly describe what each of these categories of knowledge mean to you.
Problem 3:
The following are ideal characteristics scientific (rational) decision making:
1) Decisions must be crystal clear.
2) Decision processes must be communicable.
3) Collection of data is unbiased.
4) The decision process is reproducible.
5) Options are not treated as facts.
6) The choice of action is the final step.
In two or three sentences, briefly describe what each of these characteristics mean to you.
Problem 4:
List and briefly describe (in one or two sentences) three difficulties associated with decision making. 
Point Park University MSEM-530
MSEM 530 – MANAGERIAL DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
MID-TERM EXAM – Part 1
Page 2 of 2
Problem 5:
Briefly describe (in one or two sentences) each of the following decision-making criteria; 1) maximax criteria,
2) maximin criteria, 3) equally likely criteria, and 4) minimax of regret criteria.
Problem 6:
What is the defining feature of a multi-criteria decision situation or problem?
Problem 7:
What is a “decision tree?” What are the benefits of using a decision tree in decision analysis? What might besome disadvantages of decision trees?
Problem 8:
The following are desirable characteristics of information used in decision analysis. Briefly describe why thsecharacteristics are important to decision analysis.
1) Reliable,
2) Timely,
3) Economical,
4) Necessary,
5) Sufficient,
6) Accurate, and,
7) Usable.
Problem 9:
Name one shortcoming of the Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis method.
Problem 10:
What characteristic of a decision maker does the use of preferences or utilities attempt to take intoconsideration? 

Statistics Project Sample Content Preview:

 MSEM-530
MSEM 530 – MANAGERIAL DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
MID-TERM EXAM – Part 1
Name:
Date:
General Instructions:
1. This is a closed book / closed notes exam.
2. Time available is 60 minutes.
3. Read all problems completely and carefully.
4. Write your answer neatly and clearly.
5. Please ask if you need clarification of a question.
Problem 1:
Decision analyses generally deals with those decisions that have one or more of the following characteristics:
1) They must be important.
The decision techniques must be appropriate even for complex decision making. Care is exercised to avoid material mistakes that would affect the interpretation of the outcomes.
2) They are probably unique.
There are decisions that recur numerous times and can be programmed and delegated to other decision-makers. However, there are unusual decisions that occur once and cannot be programmed like other decisions.
3) They allow some time for study.
The decision techniques are specific to specific decision situations and are not applicable in all decision-making cases. The decision-makers need to assess whether the decision techniques are appropriate and relevant to aid in decision-making.
4) They are complex.
Decision-making may involve more than one decision-maker, different objectives and multiple actions. It is necessary to consider how the prior events affect the decision situation and the impact of interdependent factors.
5) They involve uncertainty.
There is no absolute certainty that the outcome is what the decision-maker expects. There is likelihood that the decision-maker will not get it right even after using all the available information and facts. Sometimes there is little or no data are available, which increases uncertainty.
Problem 2:
Decisions have three categories of knowledge associated with their outcome:
1) Certainty- Involves a situation where all the information is available. Decisions made where the outcomes and facts are known
2) Risk – Where future outcomes are linked to alternatives that are subject to chance. The range of outcomes represent risk and the more the information the lower the risks
3) Uncertainty- Involves a situation where the outcome depends on access to information and the value of information available. If uncertainty is unstructured decisions are made based on intuition. If there is structured uncertainty, decisions incorporate subjectivity and are based on different criteria
In two or three sentences, briefly describe what each of these categories of knowledge mean to you.
Problem 3:
The following are ideal characteristics scientific (rational) decision making:
1 Decisions must be crystal clear.
It is important to eliminate ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The decision-maker also needs to define to use definite and certain values.
2) Decision processes must...
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