When does deterrence succeed Social Sciences Research Paper

This should be a qualitative research paper discussing the deterrence theory, or specifically "when does it succeed". Below are my two hypothesis. Basically you should be doing qualitative case studies to test these two hypothesis.



Hypothesis: Democracies are more effective at deterring enemies and avoiding the escalation of conflict.

Alternative Hypothesis: Countries with superior military capability are more effective at deterring enemies and avoiding the escalation of conflict.



To reference research, use the American Political Science Association citation format (https://mk0apsaconnectbvy6p6(dot)kinstacdn(dot)com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2018/11/Style-Manual-for-Political-Science-2018.pdf, starting on page 38 of that document). Make sure to include an alphabetized references section, with proper format, for all work you cite.



I already have six annotated sources you should consider using. (attached)



I have also attached the detailed instruction from my professor (attached, this paper is paper #3 starting on Page 4

Theory, Hypothesis and Annotated Bibliography

Theory testing: Deterrence Theory

Hypothesis: Democracies are more effective at deterring enemies and avoiding the escalation of conflict.

Alternative Hypothesis: Countries with superior military capability are more effective at deterring enemies and avoiding the escalation of conflict.

Independent variable one: democracy (dichotomous: yes or no)

Independent variable two: military superiority (dichotomous: yes or no)

Dependent variable: successful deterrence (dichotomous: yes or no)

Six sources:

Aghekyan, Elen et al. 2019. “Freedom in the World 2018.” Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018 (October 17, 2019).

This is an annual report published by Freedom House that assesses the condition of political rights and civil liberties around the world. It categorizes states as “free”, “partly free” or “not free”.

Huth, Paul, and Bruce Russett. 1984. “What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980.” World Politics36(4): 496–526. doi: 10.2307/2010184.

Huth and Russett develop a utility model of deterrence and test it on 54 historical cases of deterrence attempts from 1900 to 1980.

Long, Austin. 2008. “Lessons from Six Decades of Research on Deterrence, From Cold War to Long War.” RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG636.html (October 17, 2019).

This book published by the RAND Corporation recounts American attempts to deter the Soviet Union/Russia and China in the last six decades.

Sharp, Walter Gary. 2008. Democracy and Deterrence: Foundations for an Enduring World Peace. Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala.: Air University Press.

Chapter 5 of the book analyzes the role of deterrence prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

Shulsky, Abram N. 2000. “Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior.” RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1161.html (October 17, 2019).

The appendix of the book reviews the successes and failures of Chinese use of deterrence since the establishment of the PRC.

Simes, Dimitri K. 1980. “Deterrence and Coercion in Soviet Policy.” International Security5(3): 80–103. doi: 10.2307/2538421.

The article discusses the role of deterrence in Soviet foreign policy during the Cold War and its practice.

Inappropriate source:

Li, Jinming. 2016. “Mao Zedong’s Splendid Act in the Korean War.” Communist Party of China News. http://dangshi.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0526/c85037-28380383.html

There are credibility problems in using this article as a case study, since the Communist Party of China News is a subdivision of the People’s Daily, an important organ in China’s propaganda system.

Paper Assignments

There are three paper assignments for this class.  The final draft of each paper must be submitted at the beginning of class on the due date, in hard copy. Also, an electronic copy of each final draft must be emailed to Professor Reiter (dreiter@emory.edu) by 1 pm on the day it is due.  The hard copy and electronic copy must be equivalent, with the exception that the electronic copy need not include a cover page.  If you submit your paper after the beginning of class on the due date, it will be considered late and the paper grade will be reduced by one letter grade for each day it is late.  If you need to submit your paper late for a legitimate reason (eg illness or family emergency) the paper grade will not be reduced.  If such conditions arise, please contact the instructor as soon as possible.  Documentation may be required to avoid grade reduction.

General Format Issues

All papers should be double-spaced, with reasonable fonts and margins (for comparison, this page has reasonable fonts (Times New Roman 12 point) and margins).  Each paper should have an unnumbered cover page which should include a paper title, the course name and number, the date, the instructor’s name, and your name.  All other pages should be numbered, starting with number 1.  Do not include extra space/lines between paragraphs.  Do not include blank lines at the top of the first page.  To reference research, use the American Political Science Association citation format (https://mk0apsaconnectbvy6p6.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2018/11/Style-Manual-for-Political-Science-2018.pdf, starting on page 38 of that document).  Make sure to include an alphabetized references section, with proper format, for all work you cite.  Do not include in your references section any work that you do not cite.  Do not number the sources in your bibliography.  If you use notes, use endnotes rather than footnotes.  Do not use an excessive number of subheads.  Strive for concise writing; consult Strunk and White, Elements of Style.  Typographical, grammatical, format, factual, and spelling errors will count against your grade.  Some typical grammatical/punctuation issues to be aware of:

--“it’s” versus “its”

--“their” vs. “they’re” vs. “there”
--commas and periods generally go inside quotation marks, and other punctuation not part of the quotation goes outside quotation marks.

--avoid subject-verb disagreement regarding singular vs. plural

--avoid sentences without verbs

--avoid referring to a country as “he” or “she” (refer to a country as “it”)

Avoid plagiarism.  Consult the Emory Honor Code (http://catalog.college.emory.edu/academic/policies-regulations/honor-code.html). Regarding plagiarism, the most important guideline is to ensure that your work is original.  Do not purchase papers or recycle someone else’s old paper.  If you quote a source, make sure the quote is cited and demarcated with quotation marks.  Facts, especially in the research paper, require citations, with the exception of common knowledge facts, like Washington, DC being the capital of the United States.  That said, when in doubt, include a citation.  Wikipedia is not a legitimate source. Bibliographies, cover pages, and endnotes do not count towards the page limit.  Do not collaborate with other students on writing your papers, beyond informal discussions.  Adhere strictly to the recommended page limits; for example, a 5 page paper should be between 4½ and 5½ pages.  Papers should have introductions and conclusions.  Introductory paragraphs should close with a statement of theme, argument, or empirical findings.

Paper #1

Due in hard copy beginning of class September 17; you must also email a copy of the paper to dreiter@emory.edu by 1 pm, September 17.  This is the assignment.  In August 2019, the US announced the sale of $8 billion dollars in arms, specifically F-16 fighter jets, to Taiwan.  Your paper needs to answer this question: will this sale increase or decrease the likelihood of military conflict between Taiwan and China?

In your paper, you should apply a deterrence model perspective and a spiral model perspective.  There is no single right answer to the question.  The content element of your grade (that is, aside from the parts of your grade determined by adherence to format, paper organization, and writing) will be determined by your ability to apply deterrence and spiral models to answering this question.  I am less concerned with your mastery of the arcane details of the conflict (though, you need to avoid saying things that are clearly false, like that Taiwan has conducted a nuclear weapons test or that Taiwan is not an island).  Your grade will be higher if you both lay out the arguments in favor of the position you take, and present and rebut opposing arguments.

You should do some research to familiarize yourself with the China-Taiwan conflict, and the recent arms sale.  Here are some sources you can use, though you need not use (all of) them, and/or you can use other, credible sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/world/asia/taiwan-f16.html

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-taiwan-halt-invasion-china-60617

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/rightsizing-fears-about-taiwans-future/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2011-03-01/will-chinas-rise-lead-war (may need to go through ejournals to get full content)

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 (may need to go through ejournals to get full content)

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Fravel_USCC%20Testimony_FINAL.pdf

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3009780/experts-doubt-chinas-ability-launch-assault-taiwan

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-sit-idly-us-arms-sale-taiwan-65115029

https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/08/22/america-angers-china-with-a-sale-of-fighter-jets-to-taiwan

If you would like to get basic data on the national power of the involved states, here is a good source:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

If you would like to get more specific data on the military power of the involved states, go to ejournals, enter in the journal name Military Balance, and look at the most recent issue.

Make sure you cite all sources.

Paper length: 6 pages.

Paper #2

Due in hard copy beginning of class October 24.  You must also email a copy of the paper by 1 pm on October 24 to dreiter@emory.edu. 

Imagine that violence in Iraq flares up again, leading to full scale civil war.  The insurgency is a collection of anti-Iraqi government, anti-US forces.  Assume that ISIS is not involved, and that ISIS has been crushed in Iraq and elsewhere around the Middle East.

The US government decides to send 500,000 troops to Iraq to help the Iraqi government defeat the insurgency.  The US president declares, “We are intervening in Iraq primarily to secure American access to Iraqi oil.  We do not believe the current Iraqi insurgency has any connection to terrorist groups who might launch attacks outside of Iraq.”  Other countries, such as China and South Korea, also elect to contribute troops, and they also indicate that their main goals are to ensure their access to Iraqi oil.  The Iraqi government in this scenario is viewed internationally as not democratic, representing the interests of Iraqi Shiites and cracking down on Iraqi Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis.  The government has killed and imprisoned many Kurds and Sunnis, and this violence against Kurds and Sunnis is one of the main reasons for the uprising.  There are credible news reports of US troops already deployed to Iraq committing war crimes, such as sexual assault and murder of Iraqi civilians, as well as torture of detainees.

The US also initiates a military draft of all men and women ages 18-30.  You receive notification that you have been drafted into the US Army, and you have been ordered to report to basic training immediately.  Assume you are healthy enough to qualify for military service.  American casualties in the conflict are about the same rate as in the Vietnam War; note that about 20% of Americans serving in combat in the Vietnam War were killed or wounded, and about 30% of Vietnam War veterans suffered post-traumatic stress disorder after the war (note that this is a much higher casualty rate than the US experienced in Iraq in the 2000s after the 2003 invasion).  You have the following choices:

--Agree to serve in combat in Iraq for one year (both men and women are eligible to serve in the same combat roles).  You cannot assume that if you are drafted you will be given a non-combat assignment.

--Refuse to serve, be convicted of a felony, and serve three years in prison.  Note that in all but two states, felons are barred from voting for some period of time, and in some states felons have no right to vote (in Georgia, felons cannot vote while incarcerated, on parole, or on probation).  Felons have difficulty securing many kinds of jobs upon release.

--Flee to Belarus, assuming you will never be able to return to the US or leave Belarus (leaving Belarus would risk extradition back to the US, where you would be arrested on felony draft evasion charges).

--If you are right-handed, cut off half of your right index finger, to get a medical discharge from military service.  If you are left-handed, cut off half or your left index finger.  If you are ambidextrous, cut off half of each index finger.

In your paper, evaluate the costs and benefits of each choice, and then defend which one of the four choices you would take.  If you are not a US citizen, assume that your nation of citizenship has decided to send forces and is experiencing the same casualty rate, and that you have been drafted to join your nation’s combat troops being sent to Iraq.

You need not do any research for this paper (though you can if you wish; just make sure you cite any research you use, do not make any false claims (like that Iran has conducted nuclear weapons tests)).  The objective is not to demonstrate your knowledge about Iraq, but rather work through the costs and benefits of each of the four choices, and how they relate to your personal values and goals.  Think about the kinds of things that Tim O’Brien thought about: how each of the choices affects your own personal life goals and aspirations, obligations to serve we might have as citizens, how you feel about killing other people in service of a cause you do not believe in, etc.  Your paper grade will be determined by factors such as quality of writing, paper organization, and quality and thoroughness of argument (thoroughness meaning have you analyzed carefully each of the four options).  There is no right or wrong answer.  5 pages.

Paper #3

This is a longer research paper.  In this paper, you will:

--State a research question related to violent, political conflict, such as: What causes war between two states?  When do peacekeeping missions succeed?  What causes terrorist campaigns to end?  When do civil wars break out?  When do counterinsurgency campaigns succeed?  What factors determine who win interstate wars?

--State a theoretical answer to the question.  For example, peacekeeping missions are more likely to succeed when paired with power-sharing initiatives.  Your theoretical answer to the question can draw on existing ideas or be original, but either way this section of the paper needs to draw on existing scholarship.  You can draw on scholarship that was assigned for the course. 

--State explicitly at least two falsifiable hypotheses. 

--Present empirical evidence that tests your theory.  This can be quantitative evidence, or qualitative case studies. 

Note that the objective of the paper is not to find evidence in favor of a hypothesis, it is rather to collect data to test rigorously your hypotheses.  You will not receive a lower grade if you do not find evidence in favor of your central hypothesis, or of either hypothesis.

The final draft should be structured as follows:

--Introduction.  There should not be a subhead for the introduction.  There should not be subheads within the introduction.  The introduction should state the research question, summarize the theory and hypotheses, describe the empirical evidence, and state the findings.  It should also describe the scope of the paper.  Scope is the universe of phenomena that the research attempts to explain.  Describing scope also defines what phenomena the research does not attempt to explain.  For example, if your central hypothesis is, “Peace lasts longer after ethnic civil wars when peacekeepers have been deployed as compared to ethnic civil wars when peacekeepers have not been deployed,” then your scope is peace after ethnic civil wars, and not peace after non-ethnic civil wars or peace after interstate wars.  You also need to state in your introduction your unit of analysis, like are you endeavoring to explain the behavior of rebel groups, countries, national leader, pairs of states, etc.

--Literature Review, Theory, and Hypotheses.  In this section, you should summarize the existing scholarship, and present your theory.  You should also state formal hypotheses, such as: “Hypothesis 1: Peacekeeping missions are more likely to succeed when paired with power sharing initiatives.”  You should have your main hypothesis, and at least one alternative hypothesis.

A hypothesis is a general causal statement, proposing that variation in some independent variable causes variation in a dependent variable.  Like, “Democracies are more likely that non-democracies to acquire nuclear weapons,” democracy being the independent variable, and nuclear weapons acquisition being the dependent variable.  For the purposes of this paper, do not present/test hypotheses that are descriptive, like, “China is powerful.”  Each hypothesis must be general rather than specific, referring to a class of phenomena like countries or wars, rather than to specific phenomena, like a specific country or a specific war.  A good rule of thumb is that if your hypothesis mentions a specific country or war, it’s probably too specific.  Every hypothesis must be probabilistic, that is, it should state that the independent variable is likely to cause the dependent variable, and not deterministic, that the independent variable definitely causes the dependent variable.  An example of a deterministic hypothesis is, “Democracies never fight each other.”  Every hypothesis must be falsifiable, in the sense that it is possible to collect evidence that could falsify the hypothesis.  For example, the hypothesis “A country is more likely to win wars if it is blessed by God” cannot be falsified because you can’t measure whether or not a country has been blessed by God.

--Empirical Evidence.  For those of you employing qualitative methods, you should have one more case study than hypotheses.  So, if you have two hypotheses, you should have three case studies.  You should have a separate section for each case study.  Note that a case study will likely need to be limited in time span.  So, rather than make “Pakistan” your case study, make it “Pakistan 1990-1995.”  Note that a single country can constitute multiple case studies across multiple time periods.  For example, you could have one case of “Pakistan 1990-1995,” and another case study of “Pakistan 1996-2001.”  Note that length of time periods should be roughly balanced across cases, so one case shouldn’t be a century if another case is a year, for example. Across your cases, you must have variation in your independent variable for at least your main hypothesis.  Also, your hypotheses cannot make the same predictions across all cases (that is, all hypotheses should not predict war for each of your three cases).  At the end of the section, you need to have a table that summarizes the independent and dependent variable values for all of your cases, such as like the following:

Note that cell entries can be numbers or words, including categorical descriptions like “high” or “low.”  Note that it is ok if for your non-main hypothesis, the independent variable does not vary across the three cases.

In your discussion of each case study, you need to do the following things.  First, explain how you coded (classified) the dependent variable (eg, “Pakistan 2000 to 2005 did not experience the onset of civil war, here are the details”).  Second, explain how you coded the independent variables (eg, “Pakistan from 2000 to 2005 was not a democracy, and had a high level of religious homogeneity, here are the details”).  Third, construct a narrative which explains how the independent variables actually did or did not cause the dependent variable (this is sometimes called “process tracing”).  Eg, “From 2000 to 2005, religious homogeneity in Pakistan helped prevent civil war there.  Here is why. …”

If you are conducting quantitative analysis, you will be working with Danielle Villa (danielle.villa@emory.edu), an advanced political science Ph.D. student who has cotaught this class before.  She will help you with matters such as finding data, choosing the right variables and statistical estimator, reporting results, and working with R.  For more help with data feel free to also work with Dr. Robert O’Reilly of the Woodruff Library (roreill@emory.edu).  Needless to say, if you are writing a quantitative paper you can always meet with or email Dr. Reiter, as well.

--Conclusion.  This section should explain/recap whether and how the empirical evidence supports the theory.

Length: 18 pages.  This is a research paper.  Your grade will depend in part on the quality of research and arguments. 

Assignment deadlines for paper #3:

#1: Topic, due 1 pm, September 26.  The statement of topic must include the statement of a question, like, “What are the causes of civil wars?”  That question needs to about a general class of phenomena, like civil wars, rather than a specific phenomenon, like the Syrian Civil War.  This need only be a paragraph.  Everyone is highly encouraged to communicate/meet with the instructor to discuss possible topics.  Submit your statement of topic to the instructor at dreiter@emory.edu.  You can change your topic if you wish after September 26.

#2: Theory, hypothesis and annotated bibliography, due 1 pm, October 17.  You need to explain at least in brief the main theory that you are testing, like deterrence or democratic peace theory.  You also need to state your two (or more) hypotheses. After you state the hypothesis, explicitly state what is the independent variable(s), and what is the dependent variable.  You also need to submit an annotated bibliography of at least six sources pertinent to your theory/hypotheses.  An annotated bibliography is a bibliography that includes a list of sources (with full citation for each source), and then a one sentence summary of each source.  You also need to submit one source pertinent to your topic that you would NOT use because of credibility problems, other than Wikipedia, and explain why that source has credibility problems (eg a weblog written by an unknown person, or information from a likely biased source; for example, for a case study on Russian intervention in Ukraine, there are credibility problems in relying on official statements from the Russian government).  Submit the above as an attached MS Word document to the instructor at dreiter@emory.edu.

#3: Research design, due 1 pm, October 31.  Write up a 1 page (or so) memo describing your research design.  If you are doing case study/qualitative work, you need to indicate what cases you are using (you need at least three cases).  Try to indicate at least preliminarily how you are going to code the independent variable(s) and dependent variable in the cases.  If you are doing a quantitative study, you need to indicate what quantitative data set(s) you are using, what is your temporal range, what is your spatial range (eg what countries), how you are going to measure your variables, what statistical software (eg R or STATA) you are going to use, and what econometric model (eg regression) you are going to use.  Submit to the instructor electronically as an MS Word attachment to dreiter@emory.edu.

#4: Paper copy of rough draft, due in class, November 21.  The rough draft will not be graded on its quality, but it needs to be at least 16 pages long.  It needs to be typed, stapled, and double-spaced, and it needs to include a bibliography.  Please also submit an electronic copy of your rough draft to dreiter@emory.edu by 1 pm.

#5: Paper copy of final draft, due in class, December 10.  You also need to submit the final draft electronically to dreiter@emory.edu by 1 pm on December 10. 

To recap, if you want to get a good grade on the third paper, make sure you do the following, though the following is not a comprehensive to-do list:

--Follow all format guidelines, eg include cover sheet and page numbers, staple your papers, etc.

--Avoid grammatical, factual, and typographical errors

--Make sure your introduction includes all the elements described above, including statement of question, statement of argument, statement of scope, statement of unit of analysis, statement of findings, etc.

--Research thoroughly, cite your research, and include appropriate bibliographic format

--Make good arguments

--Formally state your hypotheses, and make sure each hypothesis includes an independent variable, includes a dependent variable, is falsifiable, is general, and is probabilistic

--If you are conducting qualitative empirics, include the table described above, and make sure you have at least three cases; make sure the independent variables varies across the three cases for the main hypothesis

--If you are conducting quantitative analysis, make sure you work closely Danielle Villa, Dr. Reiter, and/or Dr. O’Reilly, as needed

--Include a conclusion

--Make sure the paper follows the structural guidelines about what the main sections need to be

--Meet all submission deadlines

If you fail to meet the submission deadlines, eg not submitting on time your research design, your paper grade will be reduced.  If you submit a rough draft that is short on length or late, your paper grade will be reduced.