HLS 6030 DF4 Comments on Federal Law Enforcement

Comment on these two post as if you were me with a 100 words each, DO NOT COMPARE THE POSTS, and put 3 references for each post, and please seperate the references.
Jessica Walsh
Federal Law Enforcement-Federal Law Enforcement, specifically the FBI, would be concerned with the interest that Kareem is showing to Wahhabism via the Internet. Cyber forces within Federal Law Enforcement would definitely be concerned about these websites, and would more than likely want to track down IP addresses associated with the website. Federal Law Enforcement would also be concerned with the inter-state nature of Al-Shabaab and how there is clear interest to set off multiple bombs in different locations (Al Shabaab in North America Excercise Scenario, 2017).
State/Local Law Enforcement-Local and State Law Enforcement play a crucial role in the overall assessment of ASNA. An article on Policeone.com discusses how “street cops” may not believe that they play a major role in terrorism. Your local police department has a unique advantage to pick up on “non-criminal indicators of terrorism (Ernst, 2014). Local L.E. in the Twin Cities area are likely the first ones in the intelligence community to have contact with members of this family. I believe that local and state L.E. are in fact in a prime position to notice the beginning stages of radicalization, they would likely have an established relationship with the community already in place.
First Responders-First responders, as their name indicates, are on the scene first. In an event that a bomb goes off police personnel will more than likely be the first ones on the scene, followed by Fire/EMS, and any supplemental responding units. The issue for these first responders would be exposure to whatever radiological material is released. Their nature and training will urge them to get to the scene as fast as possible to help those who are affected but these first responders need to be aware of the effects of a dirty bomb and also what type of injuries they could expect.
Department of State-A key issue officials at the Department of State will have is how the ongoing issue in Somalia is influencing behavior at home. They would want to assess how the United States is playing a factor in the ongoing political developments in the region and whether or not a more diplomatic approach should be taken.
What Should an Initial Intelligence Assessment Cover?-The initial intelligence assessment should cover the information you have at the time and where you think it could lead. A lot of the work in the first assessment will be “…getting the fundamentals right at the start…” (Pherson & Randolph, 2017). During this first assessment I need to know who my ultimate customer will be. Pherson and Pherson describe this as a “checklist” and the first assessment will obviously not contain every bit of information, and definitely shouldn’t include assumptions about the group or the people who make it up.
Three Cognitive Biases and Intuitive Traps
One bias I could fall victim to is “confirmation bias” in which my analysis is impeded by me “accepting” what I have set out to confirm (Moore, 2007). In my understanding of this I would allow future evidence to substantiate what I have already made a conclusion about.
Satisficing-Just as an analyst would be in their work environment, I too am tight on time and deadlines, which could lead me to “satisficing,” in which I choose the first answer that would work and rely on that the rest of my assessment.
Electing a “well supported answer”-This bias would lead me to create an assessment that I believe other students will agree with. I think this is a tendency for us to be in agreement with others and shy away from offering a more unique assessment.
References
(2017). Al Shabaab in North America Excercise Scenario.
Ernst, M. (2014, 05 20). How Local and State Cops fit into Counterterrorism. Retrieved from PoliceOne: https://www(dot)policeone(dot)com/patrol-issues/articles/6994276-How-local-and-state-cops-fit-into-counterterrorism/
Moore, D. (2007). Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. Washington DC: National Defense Intelligence College.
Pherson, K., & Randolph, P. (2017). Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Douglas Mahoney
1) After reading this brief, I would define al Shabaab in North America to the FBI, state and local law enforcement, first responders, and the Department of State as a small homegrown terrorist organization with radical Islamic ideologies. This terrorist organization is sympathetic to al Shabaab in Somalia and is outraged about the US drone strikes killing the al Shabaab leader, Moktar Ali Zubeyr. Due to this killing, al Shabaab in North America believes that they must carry out a terrorist attack to show that they will not tolerate disrespect for Islam, and as a message to the United States to pull troops out of Somalia. Although al Shabaab in North America appears to be small, consisting of three or four family members, they are extremely motivated in the belief that Muslims are disrespected by the United States, and intend to explode a “dirty bomb” in an unknown location to instill fear and cause financial damage to the Western society.

Family
Mother- Mary Louise Jackson (AKA Sharmake Rahim)
Father- Khalid Sabriye
Daughter (26 yrs.)- Adara Sabriye
Son (24 yrs.)- Ibrahim Sabriye
Daughter (21 yrs.)- Farrah Sabriye
Son (19 yrs.)- Kareem Sabriye

Reading the brief, it appears that the children Ibrahim, Farrah, and Kareem pose the biggest threat. The brief does not speak directly to the father, Khalid’s role in the organization. However, there is evidence that he is involved due to three out of the four children (Ibrahim, Farrah, and Kareem) going to school and establishing residency in Minnesota where Khalid lives, and wanting to be closer to their father. We know that all the children are fairly intelligent, with Ibrahim having the skills in nuclear engineering to possibly construct a “dirty bomb”. The children each have an unknown amount of money that we can estimate to be a substantial amount located in trust funds from their mother. We also know that their main goal is to avoid mass causalities while causing fear and economic damage.

2) My initial thoughts of an intelligence assessment on al Shabaab in North America is that it should cover a variety of issues. The first issue is the family dynamic. The assessment should go over who in the family is involved, who has what skills towards an attack, who is the one that is pushing the radical ideologies and who are the ones following, and who is taking money out of their trust fund to buy what. Second, in the assessment I would want to talk about how the family’s goal is to minimize casualties while instilling fear and economic damage. For this reason, I would want state and local law enforcement in major economic areas (cities) at a heightened awareness. The family is mainly located in Minnesota, but I would want in the assessment where they may be able to travel to, how they may travel, and connections they may have in other cities. Finally, the assessment should talk about the possible ties that the family has with al Shabaab in Somalia and other radical Islamic groups in the US and internationally.

3) There will always be a human factor while analyzing information, and with that comes different biases and traps. There are many cognitive bias and intuitive traps that an analysist may fall victim to in a case like this. The three main biases and traps that an analysist may fall victim to are confirmation biases, relying on first impressions, and assuming a single solution. Analysists may fall victim to confirmation bias when they focus too much on the information that backs up the main hypothesis, and overlook other information. Also, analysts can get caught up on first impressions and information that backs those scenarios. Again, this is dangerous because it creates tunnel vision for an analyst and they may overlook other more important information. Finally, if an analyst believes that there is only one solution or outcome, then they will only seek that information to back up that outcome. An analyst must keep an open mind and be able to speak about many different scenarios.

References:

(2017). Al Shabaab in North America Excercise Scenario.

Moore, D. (2007). Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. Washington DC: National Defense Intelligence College.

Pherson, K. H., & Pherson, R. H. (2017). Critical thinking for strategic intelligence. Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press, An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc.