Peaceful resolution to violent conflict

I will send the question with the instruction. Please read it.You have to idennify the cause and the conflict. Identify the concept. Explain what is in the reading so you have to use the book.Chester A. Crocker (Editor), Fen Osler Hampson (Editor), Pamela Aall (Editor) Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World You don't have to cite from the reading. This will be an exam question exaples so will getting a similar one and it's not an open book exam. So I do not nened to cite too but please this book is important because we are study from this book.So you have to write an essay to answer teh attachment what I uploaded . If you have any question please contact. This book must have!

Reading the following fictional fact pattern. Given the information contain therein, detail the methods that you would use to address the conflict and what actors you would use to end the conflict in a lasting way. Be precise about why the methods and actors will help you end the conflict.  Provide examples where possible and try to draw upon the readings from the course.

Fictional Fact Pattern: The civil war in the small country of Dell is reaching its tipping point. The conflict has cost many lives and has ravaged the local economy, which has been in decline for decades. The two parties to the conflict (the state and the rebels) are at odds over reaching any sort of settlement. Historical enmity abounds as well, as the conflict has raged for 20 years. The international community’s attention has been drawn to the conflict due to the recent use of biological weapons on the part of the rebel group. Questions abound about where the rebel group was able to obtain the weapons, although most suspect that the neighboring country of Itunes is largely responsible. The United Nations has thus far failed to act because of ideological disagreements between the superpowers. Tape Dispenser (superpower 1) is intransient, but has indicated that it might be willing to act. Other international actors are more willing to act, but lack the organization, will, and leadership to do so.

Here is a little help. Identify the concept. Explain what is in the reading so you have to use the book. This is a note from my class mate what exactly he is looking for. But please read the question on the top. I do not know if it’s this note will help you. But every help in the book.

Who is the actors: state, rebels

Regionals: NGO,UN, other states

Peacekeeping, peacebuilding

Third party guarantee what would be the outcome

Negotiated settlement

How UN operate? Identify the conflict and the causes!

Drivers: -bad economy

-history of civil war

-states sponsor

-historical entry+ two group do not trust each other

-inaction of the UN

-inaction of the other actors

Negotiated settlements were less costly in human lives than letting a war run its course.

Toft found that negotiated accords were much more fragile than people had realized. Although they saved lives in the short run, they cost more lives in the long run if the brokered peace fell apart and violence broke out again, often deadlier than before. The settlements tended to leave countries in a relatively demilitarized state that made them unstable over the long haul.

International peacekeepers normally stick around for just the first election

Although they saved lives in the short run, they cost more lives in the long run if the brokered peace fell apart and violence broke out again, often deadlier than before.

Rebel victory:

Rebel victory generally leads to a better outcome for the country and its people than victory by the reigning state. In order to win, rebel forces need a strong institutional capacity and broad support One reason is that rebels come to power not only with goodwill but also with the capacity and might to uphold the peace, which is often lacking in third-party settlements among the populace — both of which help in the postwar period.

Conflict analyze: Conflict analysis is an essential yet tremendously challenging process. The aim is to gain a comprehensive and shared understanding of potential or ongoing violent conflicts.

Barbara F: intrasate wars wre resolved at the bargaining table. Civil wars almost always chose fight to the finish unless an outsider power stepped into guarantee a peace agreement.

Third party guarantee:1. The outsider state must have self investments (economic investment or alliance)

2. The guarantor must have be willing to use force if necessary, and it military capabilities must be sufficient to punish

3. The investing state should be able to signal resolve

Barbara F Walter: Designing transitions from civil war

Why do some civil war negotiations succeed in ending conflict and others fail? The civil war negotiation fail because they combats have no interest in working together. The third party guarantees are very important for peaceful resolution. The rebel and the government to choose negotiate their war and sign. The third party guarantors choose to enforce verify or demobilize or does not.If both party choose to demobilize in the absence of the third party= power sharing

Monica Duffy: Negotiated settlement: Combats are agreed to end the violence and accept a common terms on how to govern a postwar state. UN, OAV, NGO=Red cross

Negotiated settlement can save life in a short term but an equally increased likelihood of costing even more lives in the long run.

Short trem:

Long term: Cost more life

Regional organization: How they help manage conflict? 6 different way that regional organizations operate.

1.Impose sancson

2. burden sharing

3. diplomatically

4. statement and resolution

5. diplomatically

6.enforcment= african Union

Norms: If hard power is the other side the other part the soft power norms of people. The norms what you stand for.

Why did they emerge?

1. Failed global initiatives
2. Increased demand for intervention
3. Increase  in opportunity
4. Lead powers interest Nato

What are the advantage and disadvantage?

Pros.                                                Cons.

-          Heightened conflict                              -intension can cause more problems

-          Greater consensus                               -inability to central lead power

-          Greater support from the disputant             

-          More central over 3 party

Regional disadvantage

Little control over external threats

Inability to rest rain  regional power

Regional advantage      

1. Great consensus in the organization
2. Grates support from the diplomats
3. Heightened chances for conflict resolution
4. More control over third party states

What NGO do

1. Change attitudes
2. Intervene communication and relationships
3.  Develop new option

Limits: political environment, donor agenda, NGO strategies

Mineral resources in conflict zone increase conflict Natural resource conflict more likely to end quickly and end with military victory one side rather than a negotiated settlment.

Resource matter: diamond, Oil makes war longer

Where does the civil war come from?

Roughly stated are conflict caused by who people are , whether that be defined in term of ethnicity , religion

Economic and structural factors are more important

What are its causes? civil wars only begin under particular circumstances that favor rebel insurgencies. The most common situation involves a weak, corrupt or brutal government confronting small bands of rebels protected by mountainous terrain and sheltered by a sympathetic rural population, and possibly bolstered with foreign support or revenues from diamonds or coca

What factors inhibit the outbreak of civil war?

Civil war: is a war between organized groups within the same nation state or republic.High intensity conflict often involving regular armed forces , that is sustainined organized and large scale

Collier Hoffer Model:( Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler noted that when an ethnic group makes up more than 45 percent but less than 90 percent of a population, strife becomes more likely. Such a group, they reasoned, will be especially tempted to exploit smaller groups.

Greed vs. grievance

The “greed versus grievance” theory provides opposing arguments on the cause of civil war.

Armed conflicts are caused by a combatants’ desire for self-enrichment. These motivations are manifested in multiple ways, including economic gain through control of goods and resources or by increased power within a given state. Conflicts started through greed are often seen in states with negative economic growth and/or systemic poverty, as this implies limited state capacity to provide opposition groups with economic concessions as well as the likelihood of the absence of an effective military or police apparatus to contend with those seeking power or resources.

Natural resources such as diamonds, drugs, and timber were specifically cited as sources of financial wealth that cause conflict; thus confirming that countries with abundant natural resources have a higher risk of conflict. Financing combatants is crucial to the success of any rebellion. Extortion and donations from diasporas are two possible financial sources used by rebellion groups. Diaspora populations are also likely funding sources for rebel groups, as was the case with the Tamil population in North America funding the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Collier and Hoeffler found that diasporas themselves do not increase the risk of conflict. Faster economic growth reduces risk, likely because it raises the opportunity costs of joining a rebellion

Greed" is shorthand for the argument that combatants in armed conflicts are motivated by a desire to better their situation, and perform an informal cost-benefit analysis in examining if the rewards of joining a rebellion are greater than not joining.

Griverance= theory that civil war begin because of issues of indentity, rather than economics Grievance" stands for the argument that people rebel over issues of identity, e.g. ethnicity, religion, social class, etc., rather than over economics.

INTERstate = conflicts between different states. A good example would be the Civil War. That was an interstate conflict.

INTRAstate = conflictsin WITHIN a state. Example would be any armed conflict that was limitted to ONLY that state.

Demobilization: act of changing from a war basis to a peace basis including disbanding or discharging troops; "demobilization of factories"; "immediate demobilization of the reserves".This may be as a result of victory in war, or because a crisis has been peacefully resolved and military force will not be necessary. The opposite of demobilization is mobilization. Forceful demobilization of a defeated enemy is called demilitarization.

Democratization (or democratisation) is the transition to a more democratic political regime. It may be the transition from an authoritarian regime to a full democracy, a transition from an authoritarian political system to a semi-democracy or transition from a semi-authoritarian political system to a democratic political system. Democratization itself is influenced by various factors, including economic development, history, and civil society.

Jentelson: intervening of leading powers, such as the US, into the intrastate affairs raises two absolutely antagonistic points of view on such policies. On the one hand, there is the total denial of such policies as policies that interfere into a state sovereignty. On the other hand, this measures are considered to be correct because they protect the population of countries under the interference from the violation of human rights and crimes against humanity.  In such a way, the author insists on the importance of leading powers to protect the legitimacy of the responsibility to protect. What is meant here is the fact that the intervention into internal affairs of states may be justified and necessary, according to the author, when a policy of genocide is conducted as was the case of Darfur. At the same time, leading powers should be responsible while using their right to intervene into intrastate affairs to protect the population from humanitarian crimes. Such responsibility also implies the awareness of leading powers of the risk of being manipulated by third powers to force leading powers to exercise their right to protect and to intervene into intrastate policies.

Rebel group: They need popular support( security , education, health care or propaganda and supplementary support, external support. ( Do not give supplementary support if you supporting rebel?????

Systematic effect : Mean casual effect( what cause)All the effect you absorbed !!!!

Random effect:  Going to effect out comes (bed weathers)You can not control weather

Implement democracy it’s a good outcome

Symetric effect: Removal peace keepers might return the conflict

Asymetric effect:

Selection effect :matters

Ross reading:

How peace keeping works: Peacekeeping extremely effective policy tool, dramatically reducing the risk that war will resume. The small group peacekeeping is just as effective as a big one.Peackeepers going to harder cases.

Power sharing: political, economic, territorial, military