Probability and Health Statistics

Probability and Health Statistics
Dawn Gallegos
BHS 220
Dr. Ogbochi McKinney
29 May, 2015
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis
Null hypothesis: H0: Physical exercises do no result to weight loss and physical fitness
Alternative hypothesis: H1: Physical exercises are associated with weight loss and improved physical fitness.
The duration, as well as the frequency of the exercises, might not lead to huge changes, while time constraints and external factors might limit the ability to assess the effectiveness of the physical exercises. Since there is energy expenditure during physical exercises, there is likelihood that I would lose weight over time, especially when the dietary intake is also healthy. Decreased physical activities might increase the risk of being overweight and physically unfit. Equally, physical exercises boost metabolism, while energy loss is then a pathway to weight loss. In any case, the level of physical activity is a more variable component to the total energy expenditure (TEE), compared to the basal metabolism basal (BMR) and energy required for food digestion and absorption.
Choice of the hypotheses
A hypothesis test evaluates the prediction about the probability of propositions about a population occurring while focusing on strength of evidence in statistical inference (Davis & Mukamal, 2006). The null hypothesis is the initial claim that there is no observed effect/ change or relationship between two or more variables. On the contrary, the alternative hypothesis supposes that a population parameter differs from a specified value. The hypothesis test further shows whether to accept and reject the null hypothesis. If the null hypothesis is accepted, the alternative hypothesis is rejected, while the null hypothesis is rejected, the alternative hypothesis is not rejected. Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is a type I error, and a mistake can also be made by failure to reject the null hypothesis when the outcome and predictor are related (type II) (Davis &Mukamal, 2006). Typically the basis for the hypothesis tests is that there is justification for rejecting the null hypothesis.
A hypothesis needs to be testable especially if there is an intervention, to establish the relationship between variables. It is through testing outcomes that that a researcher makes a decision about the proposed prediction Michelson & Schofield, 2002). The hypothesis that physical exercises eventually lead to weight loss would need to be tested over time. The weight loss might appear negligible in short periods of time, but better physical fitness would improve the chances of participating in healthy lifestyle through being active. In any case, sedentary lifestyles and unhealthy eating habits ...