Week VI Assignment CS Management Essay Research Paper

You are to use the book Jacobs, F. R. & Chase, R. B. (2018). Operations management for competitive advantage. Boston: Mc-Graw Hill. Also, please use APA format

30 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:_______________YearCases of Merlot WineYearCases of Merlot Wine2002 270 2006 3582003 356 2007 5002004 398 2008 4102005 456 2009 376
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2009. Use the average demand for 2002 through 2004 as your initial forecast, then smooth the forecast forward to 2009.ASE: Altavox Electronics: wïu^îIïw.-jcAltavox is a manufacturer and distributor of many different electronic instruments and devices, including digital/analog multimeters, function generators, oscilloscopes, frequency counters, and other test and measuring equipment. Altavox sells a line of test meters that are popular with professional electricians. The model VC202 is sold through five distributors to retail stores in the United States. These distributors are located in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, and Los Angeles and have been selected to serve different regions in the country.
The model VC202 has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Altavox does not considerthis a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table.
These data are contained in an Excel spreadsheet Altavox Data. The demand in the regions varies between a high of 40 units on average per week in Atlanta and 48 units in Dallas. This quarter’s data are pretty close to the demand last quarter.
Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system being implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing.Week8 9 10 11 12 13 AverageAtlanta 3 45 37 38 55 30 18 58 47 37 23 55 40 40Boston ■ 6 35 41 40 ’ 46 48 55 18 62 44 30 45 50 42Chicago i 4 34 22 55 ' 48 72 62 28 27 95 35 45 47 47Dallas 7 42 35 ' 40 51 64 70 65 55 43 38 47 42 48LA - 2 43 54 40 46 74 40 35 45 38 48 56 50 46Total 1< \2 199 189 213 246 288 245 204 236 257 174 248 229 222
Q U E S T I1 Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks’ and three weeks’ past data. The past data in each region is given below (week - i is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks for each distributor using the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.Week -5 ■4 -3 -2 -1Atlanta 45 8 30 58 37Boston 62 8 48 40 35Chicago 62 -2 72 44 48Dallas 42 35 40 64 43LA 43 40 54 46 35Total 254 153 244 252 198
Next, consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. In your analysis, test two alpha values, .2 and .4. Use the same criteria for evaluating the model as in question 1. Assume that the initial previous forecast for the model using an alpha value of .2 is the past three-week average. For the model using an alpha of .4, assume that the previous forecast is the past five-week average.
Altavox is considering a new option for distributing the model VC202 where, instead of using five distributors, only a single distributor would be used. Evaluate this option by analyzing how accurate the forecast would be based on the demand aggregated across all regions. Use the model that you think is best from your analysis of questions 1 and 2. What are the advantages and disadvantages of aggregating demand from a forecasting view? Are there other things that should be considered when going from multiple distributors to a single distributor?O N SExcel: Altavox Data