Forcasting Hurricane landfall Models. Accuracy of the forecast

Unit VIII Final Project
Name
Course
Instructor
Date
Accuracy of the forecast
Evaluating the difference between actual landfall location and forecasted landfall location helps to determine the best way to forecast and reduce errors in hurricane landfall prediction. The main use of regression models is to forecast, there independent variables that determine the value of a dependent variable Y that depends. When the data is time series, the objective of forecasting is still the same as regression analysis. Forecasting involves using past data to determine future events and forecasting can be simple or complex, depending on different factors (Render et al., 2018). The exponential smoothing method is one of the quantitative forecasting methods that are based on time series and are useful to determine whether there is a trend.
Year

Actual

24-Hour Forecast

Forecast

Absolute

 

(Miles from Johnstown)

(Miles from Johnstown)

Error

Deviation

1

4

6

-2

2

2

5

5

0

0

3

30

40

-10

10

4

2

10

-8

8

5

12

13

-1

1

6

7

5

2

2

7

11

11

0

0

8

21

25

-4

4

9

12

8

4

4

10

12

15

-3

3

11

6

9

-3

3







Sum of errors



37


Mean Absolute Deviation

37/11

3.36

Forecast error = Actual value - Forecast value
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = Σ forecast error/ n = 37/11=3.36
When using MAD, it is possible to find how much each of the values in the data deviates from the actual landfall location. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is commonly used to forecast the actual landfall location for the hurricanes (Render et al., 2018). The difference between each of the actual landfall location and forecasted landfall location is determined. After this, the absolute value of each of the differences from the previous step was considered. To do this, one removes any negative signs from any of the differences and this is necessary as there are positive and negative deviations from the actual results. After adding all the absolute values, we divide this sum by n, which is the total number of values in the data and result is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and this was 3.36. The forecast is accurate as there is a strong positive correlation between the actual landfall s and the forecasted landfall, and year 4 is an outlier where the actual results is 2 and the forecast is 10
Why forecasting matters to the beach town
The forecasted hurricane landfall miles from Johnstown is important since it helps to determine whether there is need for improving the supply of essential goods and services emergency services, and evaluation. If the prediction is wrong and there are many people nearby directly affected, this could complicate rescue services. There may be uncertainties...