Mathematics Economics Coursework Analytical Exercise Assignment (Coursework Sample)
This is the first Fed Watch Assignment for ECON 3200. Please follow the link below to Dr. Tim Duy's latest Fed Watch Newsletter. After reading through it, submit a writeup both analyzing Dr. Duy's claims as well as your take on his views.
Fed Watch - 1/30/18 (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.
As an analytical exercise, there is no page requirement for this write-up. It is to be however long it needs to be for you to clearly and accurately address the needs of the assignment. This will include analyzing both his thesis and providing a well-rounded response based on your individual analysis. You are expected to use the data provided in the newsletter as well as any extra data you feel pertinent to your argument. The most commonly used macroeconomic data resource is the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, though a quick Google search can yield a plethora of useful results as well.
You will submit your write-ups via Canvas, which will then be screened for plagiarism by Turnitin. All documents must be in .pdf form.
If you have any question let me know.
Duy has started off by making some projections on the possible outcomes of the FOMC meeting that had started on the January 30th 2018. One of his projections is that the meeting will conclude that there could be no change in the interest rate policy because of the recent cases of inflation in the economy. However, he anticipates that the change in the interest rate policies is likely to begin in March with a rapid increase in the interest rates.
One of the evidential sources that Duy relies on is the December Summary of Economic projections in which the FOMC indicated that it could maintain three interest rate hikes in the 2018 financial year. Duy predicts that the March rate hike could be the first of the three hikes of the 2018 financial year. The other factor is the new leadership of the FOMC which could dominate in the decision of the FOMC against the choices made last year. Also, the easy financial condition of the year 2018 is another factor that could justify the rate hikes later in the year. Duy argues that the recent gains in the labour market could necessitate these hikes which are more likely to go alongside the rise in inflations. In the graph Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, the last quarter of the year 2017 indicated a grown in the percentages slightly above the first quarter of the year 2017. With this anticipated continued growth then the FOMC are likely to increase the rates in March. However, Duy argues that in such a scenario inc
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