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Management
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Demand figures at Hot Pizza Coursework Writing Assignment (Coursework Sample)

Instructions:

Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:
Week Demand ($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
11 92
12 91
Estimate demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?

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Content:


Demand Figures at Hot Pizza
Name
Course
Date
Estimate demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?
Weekly demand figures of hot pizza are as follows:
WeekDemand ($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
92
91
4 week Moving Average
Week

Demand ($)

MA(4) Forecasts

Abs. Error

Error2

Abs. % Error

1

108

 

 

 

 

2

116

 

 

 

 

3

118

 

 

 

 

4

124

 

 

 

 

5

96

116.5

20.5

420.25

21.35%

6

119

113.5

5.5

30.25

4.62%

7

96

114.25

18.25

333.0625

19.01%

8

102

108.75

6.75

45.5625

6.62%

9

112

103.25

8.75

76.5625

7.81%

10

102

107.25

5.25

27.5625

5.15%

11

92

103

11

121

11.96%

12

91

102

11

121

12.09%

 

 

99.25

 

 

 

Average

 

 

10.88

146.91

11.08 %

 

 

 

MAD

MSE

MAPE

The forecast for a 4-month moving average is 99.25. The mean average deviation is 10.88, the mean square error is MSE=146.91, and the mean average percentage error is MAPE=11.

...
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