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Demand figures at Hot Pizza Coursework Writing Assignment
Coursework Instructions:
Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:
Week Demand ($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
11 92
12 91
Estimate demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?
Coursework Sample Content Preview:
Demand Figures at Hot Pizza
Name
Course
Date
Estimate demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?
Weekly demand figures of hot pizza are as follows:
WeekDemand ($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
92
91
4 week Moving Average
Week
Demand ($)
MA(4) Forecasts
Abs. Error
Error2
Abs. % Error
1
108
2
116
3
118
4
124
5
96
116.5
20.5
420.25
21.35%
6
119
113.5
5.5
30.25
4.62%
7
96
114.25
18.25
333.0625
19.01%
8
102
108.75
6.75
45.5625
6.62%
9
112
103.25
8.75
76.5625
7.81%
10
102
107.25
5.25
27.5625
5.15%
11
92
103
11
121
11.96%
12
91
102
11
121
12.09%
99.25
Average
10.88
146.91
11.08 %
MAD
MSE
MAPE
The forecast for a 4-month moving average is 99.25. The mea...
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