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Risk Managment Management Case Study Research Paper

Case Study Instructions:

Only need to answer the question No.6.

 

FIN 5408: Risk Management Group Assignment 1: US-China Trade war and Sovereign Risk Due date: 04/06/2020 In July 2019, the President of the United States, Donald Trump placed high tariffs on Chinese imports, with intentions of implementing more over the year. This was the beginning of a trade war that ensued between the two countries. Your assignment, given your readings on Credit and Sovereign Risk, is to therefore summarize and analyze the trade war between the two countries and its implications going forward. You are expected to write a report that covers the following points: 1. A summary of the trade war and the timeline that ensued from July 2019 to date. This timeline should reflect China and US’s leaders’ actions. This includes any important announcements they made, the date tariffs were implemented, dates they were removed and deliberating times in between announcements when risks were high regarding the difficulty markets faced in anticipating their next move. 2. Identify the sectors on which tariffs and bans were implemented during the trade war and if they were subsequently lifted. 3. From the ratios in Chapter 14, identify how each were affected for China and its impact on the country’s probability to reschedule. Explain, separately, how the numerator and denominator of the ratios will be impacted, and the overall effect on the ratio. You are encouraged to make a table for this. 4. Explain the long-term effects on investment ratio that incurred due to the trade war. 5. Explain how the trade war potentially affected Alibaba, a Chinese country that issued bonds in USA. 6. China is a large debtholder of American debt. How does the trade war affect bondholders of US Treasury Bills? 7. Explain the contagion effect of the trade war on other countries. Other guidelines: Plagiarism is heavily penalized and will result in a failing grade for the entire group for the assignment. To avoid that, please cite your sources and do not engage in copying and pasting of material. You are encouraged to include tables and other graphics to improve the readability of your answers. The report should have at least 3,000 words. This does not include references.

Case Study Sample Content Preview:

Discussion
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DISCUSSION
China is a large debtholder of American debt. How does the trade war affect bondholders of US Treasury Bills?
It is indeed true that China is a large debtholder of American debt. According to Bank (2015), China holds approximately $1.2 trillion of the United States Government debt. Economists and other investors are concerned that in case there is a trade war between China and the United States, China has a possibility of reducing its U.s debt holding as a political weapon against the administration of Trump and the tariff proposal. Additionally, the value of the dollar might fall and other countries might follow the same trend and sell their holdings. Moreover, if the government of China will reduce the rate of buying when America has increases the supply of new treasuries in the market, a stampede in the bond market might follow.
In 2018, China announced that it might put tariffs on $59 billion worth of goods from America in response to the plan of the Trump to impose 25% duties on the imports of China (Leong, 2018). This affected the market during this particular period. In response, Trump ordered the United States Trade Representatives to add $100 billion tariffs against China. If the trade war between China and America persists, then more tariffs might be imposed on the goods. However, China might decide to use another initiative that is selling a large amount of the $1.2 trillion of the U.S treasury bonds the country holds (Leong, 2018). This can cause a lot of destruction in the international market. The biggest effect would be on the prices of the bonds and interest rates. A...
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