Critical Analysis of Prediction Techniques in Statistics
The objective for this short assignment is to demonstrate your understanding of the features of writing for a specialist audience – your peers in statistics or actuarial science. Your paper must be original (that is, not modified from another course) and demonstrate, for example, appropriate language and style choices, conventional organizational structure for a scientific paper (PPDAC or IMRaD), and correct integration of mathematical expressions, tables, charts, graphs, and other suitable visuals. You are encouraged to find and examine other samples of peer-reviewed journal articles to get a sense of the range of approaches and the general tone. You may exceed the 500 – 750 word range, which does not include the works cited section or any text included in visual supplements. Although originally conceived as a “critical analysis” assignment – an analysis of existing sources – I don’t mind if you would like to attempt a statistical analysis of your own.
Choose ONE of the following five options:
Find an academic, peer-reviewed article and compose a critical analysis, focusing on content and organization. Explain how the paper does or does not follow the conventional organizational structure of Problem, Plan, Data, Analysis, and Conclusion (or Introduction, Methods, Results and Discussion). Evaluate the author(s) rationale for undertaking the study. Demonstrate your statistical literacy by explaining why the author(s) approach is sensible (or not), why their analysis is appropriate (or not), and why the communication of their findings is effective (or not). Do the authors display any bias? Say something as well about the effectiveness of the paper’s abstract and its integration of visual supplements such as tables and graphs. If you are having trouble locating a suitable paper for this assignment, you may use this one: “Predicting bank financial failures using neural networks, support vector machines and multivariate statistical methods: A comparative analysis in the sample of savings deposit insurance fund (SDIF) transferred banks in Turkey” by Boyacioglu, Kara and Baykan. If that article doesn’t interest you, try a search for papers on Google Scholar, or consider contacting your math resource librarian for help.
Other assignment considerations:
double space your writing
write concisely, and always with your intended audience in mind: specialists
acknowledge all ideas from sources: use quotation marks for word-for-word quotations, and provide in-text citations. Provide citations also for content that is paraphrased
provide a full works cited at the end of your document
organize your document with headings where appropriate to improve readability
proof read your work carefully before submitting it
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Critical Analysis
Boyacioglu et al. (2008) article by the title “Predicting bank financial failures using neural networks, support vector machines and multivariate statistical methods: A comparative analysis in the sample of savings deposit insurance fund (SDIF) transferred banks in Turkey" aimed at formulating ways to enable banks to forecast the prospect of success through the economic crises. The main objective of the report is to provide literature on the different approaches that financial institutions can pick on bankruptcy prediction. The article's approach towards its goals is through offering a computational comparison of the performance of the chosen techniques. It provides comprehensive scope data for banks to choose from in deciding the best approach to predict and establish their financial resilience due to the economic climate experienced in Turkey. The sequential presentation of data used in the study succeeds in proposing the ideas of the authors informatively.
Rationale
The study built on already existing literature in the techniques that have been used by banking sectors and researchers to predict the eventuality of financial failure. The existing data, as covered in the literature review (pp. 3356- 3358), showed that the application of the various techniques was applied at different times by different researchers in different banking environments. This indicates that no comparative research had been conducted to address which of the methods was more accurate in predicting the prospect of bankruptcy for the Turkish banks. The rationale behind the study was to offer the institutions with a detailed comparative set of data about the effectiveness of the various prediction methods (pp. 3356). This is due to the different factors that affect banks explaining the variation in the topologies used in the methodologies (pp. 3362) to march the maximum appropriateness of the methods. The research is meant to show that some prediction methods are better than others depending on the available resources as it covered the three primary techniques that have been applied through an experimental approach.
Depth of Analysis
The paper offers a more in-depth analysis of the application of prediction techniques in the literature review but lacks a comprehensive basis for future research. The report provided in the study but needs further clarification in the set of factors that were considered in the methodology section. It categorically lists the effectiveness of the methods but does not explain the different factors that were switched in deciding which data set to use in the performance testing. The inclusion of the experiments involve...
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