Unit III Case Study Annual Open House Recruiting Probability
Unit III Case Study
Weight: 12% of course grade
Grading Rubric
Instructions
Leaders of a local club want to focus on recruiting and looked through their recruiting and membership paperwork. They realized that over the past 30 years of annual open-house events, they spoke to four people who were interested enough in joining to take an application packet home. The historical probability P(X) that the interested prospective members would join is below.
0 join: 0.1
1 join: 0.2
2 join: 0.4
3 join: 0.2
4 join: 0.1
When they hold an open house this year, how many members (what is the expected value) should they anticipate joining?
Explain your approach to determining the number of expected new members in a three-page response. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas, and integrate your sources using APA-formatted citations and matching reference lists. Additionally, use Times New Roman 12pt. double-spaced font.
Annual Open House Recruiting Probability
Student’s Name
Institution
Course
Date
ANNUAL OPEN HOUSE RECRUITING PROBABILITY
Data
The data is represented as
0 join: 0.1
1 join: 0.2
2 join: 0.4
3 join: 0.2
4 join: 0.1
Solution:
Numbers of members joining (X)(01234)
Probability P(x)0.10.20.40.20.1
Now for the expected numbers of members who wants to join the local club is:
Expected value of X = E[X]
= X*P(x)
= (0 * 0.1) + (1 * 0.2) + (2 * 0.4) + (3 * 0.2) + (4 * 0.1)
= 2 members
Therefore the number of expected new members is 2.
The approach takes in to determine the expected value
The expected value is the average value of random variables of a large number of trial. For example, if an trial is a game, then the random variable will show the outcomes of the winning numbers. Therefore the expected value will represent the average winnings of the game. The basic formula for getting the expected value is (P(x) * n) (Diez, Barr, Çetinkaya-Rundel, & Amazon.com, 2016).
When trying to calculate the expected outcome, the variance and the standard deviation for the local club needs the best decision among the number of the substitutes. Further considering random variables gives a chance for the real number to be assigned to the very possible outcome and event within a trial. Therefore typical representation will take the form of X and Y and the outcome will surface as a random variable. The mathematical purpose of describing the possible outcomes from a random variable and their connected probabilities is known as a probability distribution (Diez, Barr, Çetinkaya-Rundel, & Amazon.com, 2016). The main purpose of a probability distribution is to provide various valuable methods of estimating what will happen based on certain factors researched or provided. When the idea of probability is given, it is very possible to make estimations on how the organization will improve and boost their routine business associations and dealings. Probability distribution also assists in describing the random variable as an unknown that originates from the real numbers, fractions, or decimals.
Random variables
Random variables are those variables that are dependent on the probability distribution and the overall calculation. There are two types of variables in statistics. They are discrete random variables and co...
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